OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH15 +0.12%) this morning are up +0.17% at a record high and European stocks are up +0.83% at a 6-1/2 year high after German Q4 GDP expanded +0.7% q/q, more than twice as much as forecast. Also, optimism has increased over Greek debt talks after government officials taking part in Greece’s debt negotiations said both sides are signaling willingness to compromise. That sent the yield on Greece’s 10-year bond falling to a 2-week low of 9.15% and fueled gains in Italian, Spanish and Portuguese government bonds. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan -0.37%, Hong Kong +1.07%, China +0.78%, Taiwan +0.35%, Australia +2.33%, Singapore +0.21%, South Korea +0.83%, India +1.01%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index rose to a 1-week high on signs of stronger credit growth after China Jan new yuan loans rose by the most in 5-1/2 years. Commodity prices are mostly higher. Mar crude oil (CLH15 +1.19%) is up +1.46% and Mar gasoline (RBH15 +0.45%) is up +1.07%. Apr gold (GCJ15 +0.31%) is up +0.28%. Mar copper (HGH15 -0.04%) is up +0.17% at a 1-month high. Agriculture prices are higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.16%) is down -0.01%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.18%. Mar T-note prices (ZNH15 -0.15%) are down -6 ticks.
German Q4 GDP rose +0.7% q/q and +1.6% y/y (nsa), better than expectations of +0.3% q/q and +1.2% y/y (nsa).
The German Jan wholesale price index fell -0.4% m/m, the fourth straight monthly decline, and fell -2.6% y/y, the largest annual decrease in 5 years.
Eurozone Q4 GDP rose +0.3% q/q and +0.9% y/y, better than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +0.8% y/y.
UK Dec construction output rose +0.4% m/m, less than expectations of +2.7% m/m, and on an annual basis rose +5.5% y/y, right on expectations.
China Jan new yuan loans totaled 1.47 trillion yuan, more than expectations of 1.35 trillion yuan and the most in 5-1/2 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s preliminary-Feb U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to show a +0.1 point increase to 98.2, adding to January’s sharp +4.5 point increase to an 11-year high of 98.1. Today’s Jan U.S. import price index is expected to fall sharply by -3.2% m/m and -8.9% y/y, which would be even weaker than December’s report of -2.5% m/m and -5.5% y/y. There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Excelon (consensus $0.50), JM Smucker (1.51), DTE Energy (1.04), Ventas (1.13), VF Corp (0.98), Interpublic (0.58). There are no equity conferences today.
