For the first time in almost 3 years, the ‘market’ is fighting the PBOC in the FX markets. The last month has seen USDCNY rise almost 9 handles to as high as 6.21 (the weakest CNY in 5 months). At the same time, the PBOC’s official ‘fix’ of CNY has been strengthened to below 6.12 (the strongest CNY in 9-months) diverging by the most in six months from the market. “The market is staying cautious and even bearish on the China macro outlook,” notes Morgan Stanley, but as HSBC explains, “China doesn’t want to join the currency wars [and wants to stall any speculation on trend] and that explains the fix movement.” Simply put, markets doubt the PBOC and believe it will eventually be dragged into the currency war or just fundamentally deteriorate enough to warrant capital flight.
The lower pane shows the divergence between the CNY weakness in the market rate and strength in the Fix…
As WSJ reports,
