In a recent interview, Howard Marks, the great investor and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, quoted the original Dr. Doom, Henry Kaufman, who once said “There are two kinds of people who lose money: those who know nothing and those who know everything.” Those of us who are selling investment services, whether portfolio management or investment products, have a tremendous ability to locate or create research that rationalizes our approach to building and maintaining a portfolio. Because we spend so much time and effort in this process we can become one of “those” who think they know everything, and as a result, disregard our primary purpose, which is to help people preserve and grow their wealth.
This month, I want to share with you some thoughts on asset allocation. These views are contrary to the conventional approach that has been used quite successfully for decades; the basic stock, bond, and cash mix. The question we will try to answer is why cash is held in lesser amounts and only used to meet current needs or as an opportunistic buying reserve for stocks and bonds.
Welcome New Members
Before we begin, I want to take a moment to welcome all the new and returning members into the largest investment club in the world, the “Buy High, Sell Low Club.” Given the horrendous market returns beginning in August and running wild through the end of September, the club’s membership has grown so much that it can only hold meetings in cyberspace, as there is no location in the world that could accommodate all of the members.
In my early years, I was a card carrying member of the club. I first joined in the seventies and rejoined again early in the eighties. I am happy to say that since I have again let my membership expire, I have been able to resist the urge to renew. I am just as happy to say that you have also been able to resist this club’s temptations. And if you haven’t noticed, since the end of September the markets have been recovering quite nicely.
Some of you may think that resisting the club’s pull is easy. However, regret and the ever-present destructive forces of “should’ve, would’ve, could’ve” can be more agonizing than watching your portfolio value decline. For me, even though I have been rewarded with a very attractive long-term return on my capital, during those times when markets acted badly, I did not know when or if my portfolio would recover its value. I had to rely on my training, experience, and yes, faith that the businesses we own would find a way to grow their profits and dividends. If you feel at any time that the sirens’ call of the club is hard to resist, please let us know. We will do all we can to help, and together we will work towards finding a solution that we hope will be best for you.
Asset Allocation
I would venture to say that the majority of financial professionals believe asset allocation, not security selection, is the primary driver of portfolio returns. There are also just as many who think stocks are risky, bonds are safe, and cash has little use in a portfolio. Because of this, the majority of conservative investors think that bonds should hold the largest position in their investment portfolio. This belief is reinforced through the use of target date funds, which are held by so many individual investors in their 401K plans. Most target date fund investors take the time to read the literature which says the fund will be less risky as they get closer to their retirement date. This is accomplished by holding less stocks and more bonds.
This belief is also reinforced by Jack Bogle, the well-known founder of the Vanguard Funds, who has over the years told individuals that their basic allocation to bonds should be equal to their age. If you are fifty years old, your portfolio should be invested 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds. At age seventy, it should be 30% in stocks and 70% in bonds. At age 25, you should have 75% of your money in common stocks and just 25% in bonds.
