Despite record-er stock prices, weather excuses for current economic weakness, and The Fed promising that growth is here and everything will be awesome, it appears the message has not reached the US Consumer. Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index plunged 9 points last week (the largest week-to-week drop since last July) to its lowest weekly score since December. The main driver was a collapse of hope as ‘outlook’ fell to November lows.
Americans’ Ratings of Current Conditions, Economic Outlook Both Down
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions and their views of whether the economy is improving or getting worse. The theoretical maximum of the index is +100, if all Americans say the economy is “excellent” or “good” and “getting better.” The theoretical minimum is -100, if all Americans say the economy is “poor” and “getting worse.”
For the week ending May 3, 24% of Americans said the economy is excellent or good while 29% said it is poor, resulting in a current conditions score of -5 — down four points from the previous week and the lowest current conditions score since December. The economic outlook score saw a sharper drop of eight points, to -12 — its lowest reading since November. The latest outlook score is the result of 42% of Americans saying the economy is getting better, and 54% saying it is getting worse.
The recent dip in Americans’ economic confidence — which is being dragged down largely by the lower economic outlook component — is likely the culmination of a variety of economic factors.
Though stocks rebounded by last Friday, the previous week had been fraught with market losses in the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 market indexes. Meanwhile, the prices Americans were paying for gas increased in the latter half of April, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration reporting an increase of 17 cents per gallon over two weeks. Gallup has found that Americans’ confidence in the economy is related to how much they pay at the pump. Additionally, the recent report that the nation’s GDP grew a lackluster 0.2% in the first quarter — a disappointing figure compared with previous quarterly growth — may have dampened consumers’ economic hopes.
