The Secular Advisor – October 26, 2015

Economy – Additions & Updates

Additions – sentiment, manufacturing, leading economic indicators  

Updates – employment, housing, gdp forecast  

Asset Allocation – Additions & Updates

Additions – none

Updates – none

Economic Summary

Employment – initial jobless claims rose somewhat from a revised 256k to 259k, year over year trend: receding, however, job cuts have been in an upward trend since QE3 ended  

Housing – housing starts bounced 6.5% in September, year over year trend: advancing, however, permits plunged to the lowest in 7 months, year over year trend: advancing  

Sentiment – the Bloomberg economic expectations survey tumbled to 42.0, just above Sept. 2014 lows and almost as weak as during the 2013 government shutdown, 39% of respondents said the U.S. economy was getting worse, up from 36 percent in September. 23 % said it was improving, year over year trend: flat  

Manufacturing – after hitting 2 year lows in Sept., the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) printed 54.0 (above expectations of a small drop to 52.7), year over year trend: recessionary 

Leading Economic Indicators – missing expectations for the 3rd month in a row, US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) dropped 0.2% from last month, year over year trend: receding 

Q3 GDP Forecast – 0.9%, year over year trend: receding


Initial jobless claims rose somewhat from a revised 256k to 259k.


However, job cuts have been in an upward trend since QE3 ended. PLUS, lower jobless claims and increased openings does not translate into a greater hires number. Those looking for a job today will quickly notice that companies post the same employment ads for months on end searching for the perfect candidate with lots of education, usually a bachelor’s and master’s degree (sometimes a PhD), and just a few years experience (so they can pay less while giving them zero latitude for input on business direction).   

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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