“If you own stocks without a hedge, it’s not rational.” So says the world’s most famous student of risk Nassim Nicholas Taleb in a recent interview with Bloomberg as many of the world’s stock markets hover near all-time highs. “It’s like buying a house without insurance,” he explained. “We have tail risks today that we didn’t have before, and every day it gets worse.”
“Tail risks” refer to the possibility of unusual, rare, catastrophic events, often of a nature that cannot be anticipated or even imagined. Such events are frequently dubbed black swans, a term made famous by Taleb’s book called The Black Swan.
So, what is the perceived difference between houses and stocks and what does that tell us about how we judge risks elsewhere in our lives and societies? First, houses. Houses are very expensive consumer items or investments or both, depending who is buying them and why. Taleb’s point is that the value of a house will not track the market if the house burns down.
Every homeowner understands this and buys insurance. In fact, the bank requires insurance if the home has a mortgage. And, that’s because, of course, homes don’t rebuild themselves if they are destroyed.
The companies underlying stock listings, however, are not obliterated by a market crash. Of course, some companies may disappear if the crash is followed by an economic downturn; but the thousands of companies that make up the exchanges do not all evaporate.
Stocks have historically recovered after losses, even extreme losses. So, the hedging Taleb is suggesting is really about timing. Can an investor afford to wait for the rebound before having to cash in? If Taleb’s concerns are borne out in the next few years, many near retirement or already retired may be answering this question.
(The history of stock markets reveals a mixed picture. Some rebounds to previous highs have occurred within months or years. Some have taken decades. The Japanese stock market has yet to revisit the peak of 1989 and currently stands at about half the level of that peak.)