Two weeks ago, I took a shot and called the top of the stock market. If you are a newsletter writer and you aren’t trying to call major turns in the market, you are not really doing your job.
If you missed that issue, I suggest you go back and take a look at it. My argument is that speculation is getting out of control. And not just on stocks—on bitcoin, comic books, all kinds of stuff.
When you have one bubble, you usually have others, concurrently.
But the one that people are most focused on is the bubble (if you want to call it that) involving Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. Throw in Apple and Tesla for good measure, and maybe a few more.
A handful of tech stocks have gone bananas. So, let’s do some basic blocking and tackling.
I actually spend almost no time on charts in The 10th Man, but I think technical analysis is really important. The quality of the analysis often depends on the abilities of the analyst, and one of the best is Frank Cappelleri at Instinet.
He has pointed out that on a short-term basis, the NDX (which largely tracks large-cap tech stocks) has formed a head-and-shoulders top and is breaking trend.
This is the first real weakness we’ve seen in tech in a really long time…
Though Frank is quick to point out that on a longer time horizon, the trend is still firmly intact:
I don’t think it is a coincidence that the short-term breakdown is happening concurrently with tumultuous times in Silicon Valley.
Uber is disintegrating before our eyes. Unless they go public (which they can’t), they’re going to have to do a down round, and it’s not out of the question to think the company might cease to exist one day. That likely has implications for private valuations everywhere.
Also, the news broke of some pretty big sexual harassment allegations recently in tech-land. This is significant because public opinion matters—I can foresee a time when tech executives are viewed about as favorably as Wall Street was in 2011, when Occupy Wall Street began.