Cycles and structure are fundamental to price progression in the stock market. With the 6/7-year cycle making its low in January 2016, the SPX is still in a long-term uptrend. In addition, the 9-yr cycle bottomed in the fall of 2011 and its half-span, the 4.5-yr cycle, also bottomed in January 2016. Knowing this, we can understand why the index has remained so strong. However, some intermediate cycles will soon cause the trend to turn down in what will probably be the best correction since the 1810 low.
Structure is an important adjunct to cycles, and the two are highly synchronized. Therefore, if a noteworthy, cycle-induced reversal is about to take place, it should not be surprising that a fairly important wave structure is about to be completed. Although we cannot say precisely to the day when the reversal will take place, we can say with a certain amount of confidence that an intermediate reversal should take place relatively soon, probably in two to three weeks. Being aware of this, we should be able to pin-point a more exact date with technical indicators, and by the sudden shift in market mood.
Ideally, the correction from 2597 should continue a little longer, and it should be followed by a final rally which may or may not exceed the previous high — although getting to 2600 or slightly above would be ideal. Note that I used the word “ideal” twice in this paragraph. Market tops can be tricky
Chart Analysis (These charts and subsequent ones courtesy of QCharts)
SPX daily chart:
You can see that, over the last couple of weeks, it has not been all buying. Some profit-taking has taken place, but not enough selling to cause the trend to reverse, just yet. Buying off the dips is still taking place, and this sends prices right back up. This is the normal process of distribution which occurs at the top of a trend before supply overcomes demand and the trend is reversed. It is best seen on a Point & Figure chart, and the larger the pattern, the more important the following decline will be. Naturally, one has to distinguish between the activity at a genuine top formation and that of accumulation which precedes an extension of the trend. This is why it is important to know where we are in the market structure, and what cycles will be bottoming just ahead of us.