Not sure what to make of today. The recovery didn’t look like one based on merit and will be vulnerable to early morning weakness. The Russell 2000 went from trading range support to resistance as it finished with a bullish engulfing pattern. The strength of the pattern is weakened by the lack of oversold conditions. However, price action will always be dominant. A poor start will increase the probability for a retest of today’s low.
The S&P finished at its 20-day MA, but has so far struggled in prior attempts to challenge 2,073. There may be a short term day trade to 2,073, but if there is an open below 2,056, then a move to 2,034 looks more likely.
The Nasdaq clawed its way back to the ‘bear flag’ breakdown. Look for a challenge of 4,795, which may be the opportunity to run a new short play. Technicals show a MACD ‘sell’ trigger and a bearish cross in +DI / -DI.
For tomorrow, morning action will dictate action for the day. If there is a gap down, today’s gain stands a good chance of been erased. If markets can hold on for the first hour, then a challenge of recent highs looks more likely.
