FOMC Minutes Show Patient-er For Longer, “Foreign Risks”- Fearful Fed

The January statement had only modest changes so reading the tealeaves of the FOMC Minutes ‘should’ provide little additional color with the main focus on the meaning of ‘patient‘, fears over ‘international developments‘, the ‘right’ gauge of inflation, and pace of rate lift-off

  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS INCLINED TO STAY AT ZERO LONGER: MINUTES
  • *MANY OFFICIALS FELT DROPPING `PATIENT’ MAY LEAD TO DATE FOCUS
  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW RISKS IF FOREIGN WEAKNESS WORSENED
  • *FED OFFICIALS AGREED POLICY SHOULD STAY DATA DEPENDENT
  • It appears The Fed is ‘worried’ again… lower for longerer…

    Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 2091.25, 10Y 2.122%, Gold $1201.50, WTI $52.05

    It’s been a good 3 weeks for stocks and oil since The FOMC Meeting…(and not for Bonds and PMs)

    Click on picture to enlarge

    Additional headlines:

  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS INCLINED TO STAY AT ZERO LONGER: MINUTES
  • *FED OFFICIALS AGREED POLICY SHOULD STAY DATA DEPENDENT
  • *FED SAYS CONTINUED TEPID WAGE GROWTH COULD RESTRAIN SPENDING
  • *FED EXPECTED STRONGER DOLLAR TO BE PERSISTENT DRAG ON EXPORTS
  • *A FEW FED OFFICIALS NOTED RISK DOLLAR COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER
  • *FED MINUTES NOTED RISKS FROM CHINA, MIDEAST, UKRAINE, GREECE
  • *FED OFFICIALS SAW RISKS TO OUTLOOK NEARLY BALANCED AT JAN. FOMC
  • *FED OFFICIALS SAW RISKS TO OUTLOOK NEARLY BALANCED AT JAN. FOMC
  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW RISKS IF FOREIGN WEAKNESS WORSENED
  • The key sections from the minutes:

    Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the begin-ning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time.

    Not everyone agreed:

    Some observed that, even with these risks taken into consideration, the federal funds rate may have already been kept at its lower bound for a sufficient length of time, and that it might be appropriate to begin policy firming in the near term.

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    Author: Travis Esquivel

    Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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