We kicked off the day with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 9:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates at 2:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.What we see ahead so far this week is FOMC Meeting tomorrow and decision on rates on Wednesday. The guess is the Fed may just hold rates in check, after some Fed officials hawkish stand on rates panicked the market suggesting rate hikes are back in the fold but my bet the Fed keeps it’s powder dry. And Friday we will have the Unemployment data, that yet again, is in a total disconnect. The so-called jobs added are not supposed to count illegal aliens employment, and the next question, are the illegals immigrants paying taxes? JOLT’s number are starting to be in disconnect as well. Now the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, came in hotter than expected, with an annualized inflation rate of 2.7%, the highest in 5 months. The PCE Index also set new all-time high in March. Nevertheless, the PCE inflation rate has been below the long-term average for 6 consecutive months. What is concerning is that while the inflation rate is allegedly in retreat, the savings rate has yet to pick up. The savings rate to a 14-yaer low of 2.7% in June 2022 and average savings rate of 8.4%. The March figure was the lowest since November of 2022. If prices are indeed declining, where are consumer funds going? Talking with several economists, they expect a rate cut in September ahead of the November Presidential election. The basis of their guesstimates is if the Fed does not cut rates before the election, it will open up a nasty political football.Now Biden says he will strike yet another Trump era that helped the economy roll. He has an extremely bad record of breaking things that are not broken. Whatever the administration is peddling TAX CUTS WORK. The proof is in the pudding with President Kennedy was the first President to do so it also worked for Reagan, Bush the second, and Trump. On the corn front traders will be following cash basis in corn for sale.Severe storms ripped through the heartland over the weekend covering 16 states and a tornado count of 137 in a 24 hour period. They are getting boots on the ground to further access the damage and the damage would leave anyone in awe. There is another snow storm forming over the Rockies and Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast for Round 2 in the same areas. Are prayers are with all affected by the Act of God. Fridays open interest fell 39,164 contracts in corn, 32,868 contracts of soybeans with funds overall buyers of 18,861 contracts of soybeans but overall was a liquidating market with May First Notice Day tomorrow. Wheat sold off as well and new fund interest is showing in soybean meal. We seem to be waiting for another event to set the market tone.
