EC Some Crucial Facts About Energy

It is magical!  Whatever the topic of current interest, there is no shortage of pundits.

The current energy experts were recently (it seems like only yesterday) the leading authorities on the Fed, Europe, Ukraine, Libya, deflation, hyperinflation, stagflation, and of course, Ebola.

The current crop of experts confidently talks about an oil glut, the motives of the Saudi’s, and the demise of the US energy industry.  The nearly universal perception is that there is no bottom in oil prices.

I wonder how many experts could actually pass a test.  Suppose that CNBC used this to qualify experts.  My guess is that they would have no content!  If you can even give ballpark estimates on these questions, you will beat the pundits on television.

Pop Quiz

Pop quizzes were universally hated by my students, but were infallible at finding those who did not know basic facts.

  • What country was the world’s largest overall producer of energy?  The largest consumer?
  • What region has the largest proven reserves?
  • How does Chinese consumption per capita compare with Europe?  With the US?
  • How many car drivers are there in China?  What is the growth rate?
  • What is the change in demand for oil in 2014?
  • What is the daily oil consumption?  How much is the supply/demand imbalance?
  • Answers

  • China — on both fronts.  And just getting started.
  • The Middle East — by far.
  • 3.  China is 1/2 the consumption of Europe — generally frugal and with shorter travel distances.  1/4 of the consumption of the US.

    4.  300 million.  A growth rate of about 900% over the last ten years.  There are plenty of new highways and car dealers.  The growth rate will surely slow, but there are still about a billion drivers to come.  How about India?

    5.  An increase of about 0.7% and a bit more in 2015.  I suspect that most “experts” are projecting declines.

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Author: Travis Esquivel

    Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

    Share This Post On

    Submit a Comment

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *