Crude Oil: Weekly Forecast December 3-9

 finished near the 74.350 USD price per barrel on Friday. The commodity was trading near a high of around 79.560 momentarily on Thursday, as highs from  November 14, were flirted with until a storm of selling suddenly developed.

WTI Crude Oil finished the week lower than it began and while it did not hit the low near 72.000 which was touched on November 16, the commodity is within sight of support and values last seen in July.

Speculative conditions in WTI Crude Oil certainly played into the volatility produced last week. OPEC and its associated oil producers announced that production cuts would be implemented in the middle of the week. Perhaps on the belief OPEC would pursue this type of rhetoric, WTI Crude Oil climbed early in the week, but that is only a speculative consideration. Certainly, there was buying taking place in the commodity and the climb upwards from Tuesday until Thursday was done without a great deal of price velocity, which was a good sign for buyers – until the spike lower.


Sudden Drop in Value and Challenge to Mid-Term Support Levels

Stronger than expected GDP numbers from the U.S did not help WTI Crude Oil sustain its prices last week. While the U.S economy shows a stubborn ability to grow, other major economies continue to languish including China and this is likely playing into short-term demand from buyers.  WTI Crude Oil finishing above the 74.000 level keeps the commodity within a known range, which has been demonstrated since the 7th of November.

  • Mid-term support levels should be watched by WTI Crude Oil speculators. If the 74.000 mark falters and 73.000 is seriously challenged, additional downside action could develop.
  • Oil producers would certainly like to see the price of Crude Oil remain solid, but until lasting demand is delivered with a strong mid-term outlook the price of the commodity may languish near-term.

    Risk Appetite and the Notion WTI Crude Oil is Inexpensive

    Speculators who want to want to wager on developing upside in WTI Crude Oil cannot be blamed. However, until support levels prove durable the task of hunting for a spot to go long in the commodity is dangerous. The energy sector continues to see the price of all the important resources near mid-term lows. The belief that demand will start to flourish among speculators and global manufacturers who need Crude Oil is reasonable, but Thursday’s sudden reversal lower shows that speculative forces remain strong among those who have the ability to sell with short-term bursts.


    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

    Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 70.500 to 80.200 USD.

    Thursday’s selloff looks rather suspicious and may have been an attempt by some large WTI Crude Oil players to force short term buyers out of the marketplace. However, conspiracy theory within the commodity markets is a constant shadow and not always correct. Day traders need to be mindful that large traders dominate the WTI Crude Oil market and that risk management is essential at all time. Support near the 74.000 to 73.800 ratios look important as WTI Crude Oil opens this week. Traders who want to pursue lower depths in the commodity may be tempted to wager on lower values, but support near 73.000 looks to be an important ratio.

    Speculators who continue to search for higher values based on the notion that WTI Crude Oil is still too inexpensive should note demand remains relatively light due to global recessionary concerns. Yes, this is likely to change, but betting on a wild ride higher may be far too aggressive. The 79.000 USD ratio proved a rather durable resistance level as speculative buying fever began to run out of power. Traders pursuing upside should not get overly ambitious and stick to quick-hitting buying positions with realistic targets. Having finished Friday with one-week lows, WTI Crude Oil should be watched as it opens on Monday. If the opening is quiet and buying doesn’t produce short-term upside, it may be a sign that additional selling sentiment may linger.

    Crude Oil

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    Author: Travis Esquivel

    Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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