At 38 consecutive days, it is now the longest streak without the Dow hitting either a 1-month high or low in at least 100 years. That milestone alone would justify discussion, but as Dana Lyon notes, the current 1-month range in the Dow is a very tight 1.58% (the 17th narrowest 1-month range since 1990). Simply put, the bar for setting a 1-month high or low has been very low for the Dow, yet it has been unable to achieve one; but given the length and amount of the market compression, one might expect it to explode one way or another once the streak was broken.
Dana Lyon notes,
On April 24, we posted what we thought (and hoped) would be our final post concerning the stock market’s lengthy trading range. In the post we noted that for only the 8th time in 100 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had made it to 30 days without hitting either a 1-month high or low. It was, in our view, a pretty remarkable stat. Little did we know, however, that 8 days later, the streak would still be alive. And at 38 consecutive days, it is now the longest such streak in at least 100 years. The only longer streak in history occurred in 1910 and lasted 45 days (although the daily data from that era is a little sketchy so it’s possible that our current streak is the longest ever.)
That milestone alone would justify an update to the April 24 post. However, there is yet another angle to this streak that is pretty remarkable. The current 1-month range in the DJIA is a very tight 1.58%. It is so tight in fact that it accounts for the 17th narrowest 1-month range since 1990. For those scoring at home, that places it in the 0.6th percentile of all 1-month ranges. In that context, the DJIA’s record streak without a 1-month high or low is that much more amazing considering how low the bar has been for achieving a new high or low.
Consider this: of the other 7 streaks of 30 days without a 1-month high or low over the past 100 years, the average 1-month range was nearly 5%. Only 1 other streak had a range as low as even 2.50%.
