A number of weeks ago, I noticed the triple-bullish-on-real-estate fund, shown below, was breaking out of a big base, only to reverse almost instantly. This failed bullish breakout confirmed my general suspicion that, even in this new-highs-every-day environment, real estate was at risk. Let’s face it, an industry dependent uon super-cheap money can’t thrive in an environment of escalating interest rates. Since that failed breakout, it has sunk hard.
Conversely, the triple-bearish-on-real-estate fund DRV has been thriving, chipping away at its long-term descending trendline and, recently, flying above it. I think being bearish on real estate has a bright future ahead.