EUR/USD July Range At Risk As Fed Chair Yellen Testifies To Congress

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

EUR/USD

1.1419

1.1425

1.1383

20

42

EUR/USD volatility may continue to dwindle ahead of the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, but the pair stands at risk of threatening the monthly opening range should fresh remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen shift market expectations.

Chair Yellen may strike a hawkish tone in front of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee amid the growing discussion to unload the balance sheet, and the greenback may catch a bid should the testimony highlight a more aggressive path in normalizing monetary policy. However, the central bank head may refrain from revealing anything new amid the mixed data prints coming out of the real economy, and the euro-dollar exchange rate may trade to fresh 2017-highs if Chair Yellen casts a more shallow path for the Fed Funds rate.

EUR/USD Daily

Chart – Created Using Trading View

The near-term triangle/wedge formation in EUR/USD may give way to fresh yearly highs as price & the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retain the upward trends from late-2016, with near-term support coming in around 1.1330 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1350 (50% expansion), which largely lines up with trendline support.

Need a break of the June-high (1.1446) to open up the 1.1480 (78.6% expansion) hurdle, with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1580 (100% expansion).

However, failure to hold above the monthly-low (1.1312) may stoke a larger correction in EUR/USD, with the first downside target coming in around 1.1290 (38.2% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1230 (23.6% expansion).

Ticker

Last

High

Low

Daily Change ($)

Daily Range ($)

USOIL

1.2876

$44.88

$43.81

12

1.07