First Thoughts: The White House’s one-month sprint
Oct22

First Thoughts: The White House’s one-month sprint

  The White House’s one-month sprint to fix the Obamacare website… The finger pointing begins… Flashback to 2005: The Medicare Part D rollout was equally rocky… September jobs report: 148,000 jobs added, unemployment rate drops to 7.2%… Arkansas — a fascinating state to watch in 2014… De Blasio is leading NYC mayoral contest by 44 points (!!!)… And RIP, Lee Bandy. By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Jessica Taylor *** The White House’s one-month sprint: By now, we all know that the initial rollout of the federal Obamacare website has been a disaster. Here’s some of the rough coverage, per NBC’s Sarah Blackwill: “The Health Site’s Chaotic Debut,” says a New York Times editorial; “In Obamacare speech, Obama makes a desperate sales pitch,” writes the Washington Post’s Dana Milbank;  and Jon Stewart dished more stinging jokes about the site. The real question, of course, is how long it will take to fix the problems. And here’s the answer: The Obama White House has about a month — so until Thanksgiving — to find a solution before the system is negatively impacted. Why Thanksgiving? Well, Dec. 15 is the last day people can enroll to have insurance start on Jan. 1, and the administration had always assumed that the young, healthy, uninsured Americans would begin purchasing insurance around Dec. 1. But if the site isn’t ready by then — or if the website is viewed as unworkable — then there are going to real concerns whether enough young people will sign up to make […]

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Government Shutdown Melodrama Won’t Matter on Election Day 2016
Sep23

Government Shutdown Melodrama Won’t Matter on Election Day 2016

Most Americans don’t care about the debt-ceiling fight or defunding Obamacare—which means this week’s drama won’t affect 2014 or 2016. But Republicans are missing an opportunity, says Stuart Stevens. In a week that will be dominated by the debt ceiling and Republican efforts to defund Obamacare, there will be an irresistible desire to view the outcome as having real political consequences for 2014 and the next presidential race. Let me offer a different view: nothing that happens this week will have much impact come Election Day next year or beyond. Why? Little of this week’s melodrama is likely to affect the quality of life of most Americans. As Sen. Rand Paul observed, Obamacare is overwhelmingly likely to continue. The debt ceiling will be raised. Some politicians will have a good week and some a bad one, but most Americans just don’t care. The real line of scrimmage in American politics is the economy. More than any single factor, the voter’s view of his or her own economic situation determines the vote. In November 2011, when Nate Silver famously predicted that President Obama had a 17 percent chance of winning reelection, the Republican Party had an approval rating of 35 percent, a terrible number that is about what it is today. But the more dominating number was the lowly 43 percent of voters who approved of Obama’s handling of the economy. On Election Day 2012, exit polls showed a significant gain for Obama, with his overall job approval up to 53 percent. Among voters […]

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