Image Source:   The US national debt is so out of control that, ironically enough, even the Federal Reserve chair  about the problem. And while America is among the top contributors, it isn’t just the US that’s spending money it doesn’t have: after briefly declining in 2023, the global  is again at an all-time high.Even though interest rates are still extremely low by any free market standard, with even modestly elevated interest rates in the US, payments on servicing the debt skyrocket. This blows up the national debt balloon even bigger. With zero chance of Washington reigning in spending anywhere near enough to keep up, the interest can only be paid with even more borrowing.The largest quarterly increases were unsurprisingly in the US and Japan, and these are a couple of the most indebted national economies overall. But emerging markets are now along for the ride, with some of the largest debt-to-GDP ratio increases this year coming from the likes of . Along with Thailand and Korea, China’s ratio of consumer debt to GDP is still above pre-COVID levels.In any event, 2023’s debt-to-GPT ratio decline was not due to countries spending more responsibly. It was due to inflation, which can have the effect of boosting nominal GDP, because it increases the total on-paper value of the goods that a country produces, and makes tax revenues appear artificially higher.But while inflation makes prices go up, it doesn’t increase the real, lasting value of an economy. It also steals purchasing power from savers, which can only be spun as an economic positive in a world like ours, ruled by the Keynesian perversion of fiat central banking. The whipsaw effect of monetary policy never truly addresses the root of any problem it attempts to solve. It requires fallible humans with […]

With this week’s inflation report for April, we can update several measures of the real economic status of average American workers, as well as their forecast for further job and economic gains.First, here is real average hourly wages for nonsupervisory workers. In April, nominal average wages increased by 0.2%. Since consumer inflation increased 0.3%, real nonsupervisory wages declined -0.1%, the third monthly decline in a row:Real nonsupervisory wages are up 2.8% since just before the pandemic, and while the sharp increase in 2020 can be discounted due to compositional effects (many more low wage service workers were laid off during the pandemic closures than more highly paid office workers), still real average hourly wages have made no progress at all since July 2020.On the other hand, on a YoY basis, real average hourly wages are up 0.6%, which historically is not bad:For the real amount of wage income available to the American working and middle class as a whole, we turn to real aggregate payrolls. Because the number of hours worked actually declined during April, these only increased by 0.1%, so in real terms they declined -0.2%:With the exception of the pandemic, these have always peaked between 4 and 10 months before the onset of recessions. As the longer historical graph below shows, one month decline is not unusual, but obviously, if this continues for several more months it would be of increasing concern:On a YoY basis, these are up 2.1%. Typically they have sharply declined to negative territory coincidently […]

(Click on image to enlarge)Precious metals have been very strong over the past two years, with Gold breaking out of a historic bullish pattern. Is it time for Silver to do the same?has rallied sharply but is facing heavy resistance. Let’s look at the chart!“The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.” – Joe FridayAs you can see, Silver has formed a bullish inverse head and shoulders “cup” pattern and price has reached the top of the cup (resistance).In the past, Silver has rallied sharply on breakouts of bullish patterns… and declined sharply from breakdowns of bearish patterns.Should Silver breakout above current resistance, it should rally a LARGE percent.Will we see another historic breakout for precious metals? Stay tuned!Will Japanese Yen Currency Rally From 40-Year Support?Is German 10-Year Bond Yield Nearing Historic Breakout?Silver Rally Testing Major Breakout Resistance

After opening the day marginally higher, Indian share markets reversed the trend as the session progressed and ended the day lower.Indian equities, which started with decent gains on Wednesday, took a sharp U-turn within an hour of opening.At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 253 points (up 0.3%).Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty closed higher by 61 points (up 0.3%).M&M, Grasim Industries, BPCL are among the top gainers today.TCS, Cipla, and HCL Tech on the other hand, were among the top losers today.The GIFT Nifty was trading at 22,517, up by 45 points, at the time of writing.The BSE MidCap index ended 1.2% higher and the BSE SmallCap index ended 1.4% higher.Sectoral indices are trading mixed with stocks in the metal sector, realty sector, and power sector witnessing the most buying. Meanwhile, stocks in the IT sector and media sector witnessed selling pressure.Shares of Polycab, ABB India, and SKF India hit their respective 52-week highs today.The rupee is trading at 83.34 against the US$.Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading marginally lower at Rs 72,943 per 10 grams.Meanwhile, silver prices were trading 0.3% higher at Rs 87,577 per 1 kg.  Why Container Corporation Share Price is FallingIn news from the PSU sector, Container Corporation of India’s share price fell over 2% in early trade on 17 May after the public sector company reported a 5.5% on-year uptick in net profit.Its March quarter profit jumped 5.5% to Rs 3.2 bn from the year-ago period, aided by volume growth and increased market share, the public sector company said on 16 May.Sequentially, profit after tax (PAT) came in lower than […]

Gold is bouncing back towards the $2400 psychological level after slightly weaker US macroeconomic data was released this week.Weaker inflation readings have helped gold bulls to come close to their all-time high once again. The other key macroeconomic data was also in favor of the yellow metal. Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected at 222K (220K – forecast). Building Permits came in lower than expected at 1.440M (1.480M – expected). Despite this, several Fed officials indicated that more data may be needed to properly access the trend before any action is taken on interest rates.   Persistently high inflation may prevent the Fed from making the much-anticipated rate cuts sooner.Currently, the market is implying: 8.7% probability of a cut in June 2024 33.5% probability of a hike in July 2024 87.5% probability of a September 2024 cut Higher for longer interest rates could have a negative impact on zero-yielding bullion.   However, any significant increase in the probability of a cut in the foreseeable future could push gold higher.Support for XAUUSD may also come in the form of continued physical gold buying by central banks, as well as any sudden geopolitical turbulence.The World’s Largest Retailer – Walmart, Will Release Its Earnings Today USD Rebounds Ahead Of Fed Chair Powell’s Speech This Week: GBPUSD Bulls Are Trying To Move Closer To 200-Period SMA

S&P 500 extended CPI advance, but was met with rejection – how serious is that? Too early to say whether that‘s the beginning of a protracted correction, but the procession of Fed speakers yesterday and today, must be taken into account.Together with 10y and 2y yields together with the dollar defending 200-day moving average, this bond market chart reigns supreme.(Click on image to enlarge)Friday is data light, next week is again full of Fed speakers set to deliver intraday volatility, with services and manufacturing PMI data as the most important US ones apart from existing home sales. Gold, Silver and Miners(Click on image to enlarge)Gold and silver have merely paused while showing how well they are bid – silver $30 is within spitting distance, and odds are that even by today‘s close it would be overcome – and if not, there is early next week to take care of that. Alternatively, basing sideways would only give more power to the resulting upswing, and fresh push lower in yields is what would usher that similarly clearly to Wednesday, and in both precious metals.Yes, I’m still bullish since gold’s failure to even reach the $2,275 support – same for silver.Stellar CPI GainsPPI SpringboardMy Inflation Data Expectation