DJT Stock Surges As Musk Endorses Trump After Assassination Attempt
Jul15

DJT Stock Surges As Musk Endorses Trump After Assassination Attempt

Image courtesy of  In a dramatic turn of events, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (Nasdaq: ) soared in  Monday, following an  and subsequent endorsement from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The incident, which occurred during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape and financial markets. Donald Trump Survives Assassination Attempt On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot in the upper right ear while addressing supporters at a rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. The assailant, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, fired eight rounds from an AR-15-style rifle before being fatally shot by a Secret Service Counter Assault Team sniper.Despite the attack, Trump displayed remarkable resilience. After taking cover behind the lectern, he emerged with a bloodied face, raised his fist, and shouted “Fight! Fight! Fight!” to the crowd. One rally attendee, 50-year-old Corey Comperatore, was killed in the incident, while two others were critically injured.The former president was quickly escorted off stage by Secret Service agents and taken to Butler Memorial Hospital. He was released a few hours later in stable condition and has since returned to New Jersey. Trump confirmed he would attend the Republican National Convention on July 15 as planned. Elon Musk Endorses Donald Trump, DJT and Tesla Stock on the Rise In the aftermath of the attack, Elon Musk took to X (formerly Twitter) to voice his support for Trump. “Last time America had a candidate this tough was Theodore Roosevelt,” Musk , implying that this […]

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Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: Gold – Monday, July 15
Jul15

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis: Gold – Monday, July 15

Image Source:   Gold Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function – Counter-Trend Mode – Corrective Structure – Triangle for wave 4 Position -Wave 5 Direction – Wave 5 is still in play Details – Gold broke out of the triangle to confirm the end of wave 4. Prices are now expected to rally in wave 5. It appears the price is in wave iii (circled) of 5 which could extend to 2500 and above.Gold has made a decisive breakout from its over 2-month consolidation range by moving higher in early July 2024. This breakout signifies a continuation of the bullish trend initiated in September 2022. In the near term, a pullback is likely before Gold resumes its ascent to reach new all-time highs.Examining the daily chart, we see that the supercycle wave (IV) of the long-term bullish trend, which began in December 2015, has been completed. Following this, Gold embarked on a new impulse wave (V). Within wave (V), waves I and II were completed in May and October 2023, respectively. Gold is currently in wave (3) of III, which has the potential to extend beyond 2500 before it concludes. The recent over 2-month sideways movement represents wave 4 of (3). The current upward movement is part of wave 5 (3), expected to break through to new all-time highs. Consequently, the bullish potential for Gold remains robust. This provides an opportunity for buyers to enter new positions on pullbacks.On the H4 chart, we can observe the sub-waves of wave 5 of (3) as they unfold. It appears that Gold has completed the first two sub-waves, waves i and ii (circled), and […]

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Markets Confident That Rate Cuts Will Start In September
Jul15

Markets Confident That Rate Cuts Will Start In September

We’ve been here before. Markets price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates only to learn otherwise. Is this time different? That’s the bet… again.To be sure, there are several compelling reasons to assume that rate cuts are near. Another  helps.  that the US economy is slowing is another factor that supports a dovish pivot for monetary policy. are now pricing in a high probability (90%-plus) that the central bank will start cutting rates at the Sep. 18 FOMC policy meeting. That’s up sharply from a  (Meanwhile, no cut is expected for the next meeting on July 31.)The policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield is also pricing in a softer Fed funds target rate. On Friday, this key maturity fell to 4.19%, the lowest since late-March, marking more than 100 basis points below the current 5.25-to-5.50% Fed funds target range.Meanwhile, a  I developed for TMC Research also points to a lower target rate. Using data through July 8, this model estimated the optimal target rate at roughly 4.75%, which suggests a 50-basis-point cut is optimal.A crucial economic report this week will be widely read for fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy: tomorrow’s US retail sales report for June (Tues., July 16). Economists expect spending to turn slightly negative for the monthly comparison, according to Econoday.com survey data.If correct, the weak retail data will provide more evidence that the recent slowdown in consumer spending continues, which in turn will support the crowd’s view that a rate cut is on […]

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Poland’s Current Account Close To Balance In May
Jul15

Poland’s Current Account Close To Balance In May

Image source:   Poland’s external current account remains strong – with a tiny monthly deficit in May but a sizeable surplus of 1.8% of GDP on a 12-month rolling basis. While merchandise imports reflect a gradual recovery of domestic consumer demand, exports struggle due to stagnant German manufacturing, in particular the automotive industry.The current account balance closed May with a small deficit of €63m, below our forecast of a surplus of €152m and a surplus of €27m according to the consensus. The goods trade deficit was €613m with exports down by 7.6% year-on-year and imports by 2.4% year-on-year (with two fewer working days in May than a year earlier), compared with +6.5% YoY and +7.0% YoY respectively in April, with a more favorable calendar pattern. We estimate that on a 12-month rolling basis the current account balance surplus remained at 1.8% of GDP.Trade in goods closed with a deficit of €613m in May, following a surplus of €124m in April. We estimate that on a 12-month rolling basis, the merchandise trade surplus deteriorated slightly in May – to 0.6% of GDP from 0.8% of GDP a month earlier. Largely thanks to two fewer working days than a year ago, euro-denominated exports fell 7.6% YoY in May after rising 6.5% in April, when we had two more working days. Imports fell by 2.4% YoY in May, following an increase of 7.0% YoY in April. The growth rates of exports and imports calculated in zloty remained strongly negative (-12.8% YoY in exports and […]

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Struggling Consumers Are A Tough Slog
Jul15

Struggling Consumers Are A Tough Slog

Consumer spending drives just under 60% of Canadian GDP growth and consumer spending fell across all categories in June–discretionary and essential (shown below ). Warm weather and declining interest rates did not entice spending as hoped. Overall, second-quarter retail sales were negative.Fewer Canadians have renovated their homes amid a sluggish housing sector, while food services spending posted weak growth on a three-month moving average. Hotel spending softened and tourism demand is still sitting below pre-pandemic levels.Canadian Treasury bond prices have been rising since last October (lowering yields and fixed-term loan rates) and the Bank of Canada began easing short-term rates last month. Still, the year-over-year growth in residential mortgages has been the weakest since the 2001 recession, 23 years ago (courtesy of  and ).With unemployment at 6.4% and expected to rise through 2025, and households heavily indebted (Canadian household debt to GDP ratio below since 1970 in red, versus the US in blue), lower interest rates are unlikely to stimulate spending for some time. The average annual interest payments per Canadian household have risen 66%+ in the past 2 years, by far the sharpest increase in more than 24 years (shown below since 2000).Canada has dug itself into a period of tough slog. RBC explains in : “…we don’t expect a turnaround in the near term. While the Bank of Canada’s cutting cycle is underway after an initial 25 basis point cut in June, interest rates are still very restrictive as homeowners grapple with the impact of mortgage renewals. It will take time for the […]

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Savvy Shoppers Await Prime Week Deal Competition
Jul15

Savvy Shoppers Await Prime Week Deal Competition

Amazon () Prime Week is back again, and every year retailers ride the coattails of Prime Week with their own sales.  Inflation is still affecting retailers — during the last earnings season, 73% mentioned inflation during their earnings calls.  Most retailers also agree that consumers are waiting for promotional events in order to shop, as they are cautious and are trading down. Therefore, during this Prime Week, it is very likely that retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value oriented.Amazon will offer its deals primarily online and only to its Prime subscribers, whereas Target, Best Buy, Walmart and others will offer the same deals in-store and online. Although the event will be held in-store and online, there’s no doubt consumers will be doing price comparisons online and on their digital devices.To make the competition more interesting, Chinese retailers Shein and Temu, known for offering low-priced merchandise, are also ramping up their discounting. E-commerce growth comparisonAmazon Prime Day takes place this year July 16-17, during the same week as last year. This year’s Prime Day sales will affect Amazon’s Q3 2024 online revenue, which is estimated to grow 4.7% to $59.975 billion, and is on track to be stronger than the previous two years Q3 quarters (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Amazon Prime Day Revenue in USD Millions: 2019 Actual – 2024 EstimateSource: LSEG I/B/E/S Amazon’s Prime Week deals will be found online. In terms of year-over-year growth, Walmart is expected to see […]

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