After opening the day lower, Indian benchmark indices continued the downtrend as the session progressed and ended the day on negative note.India stock markets traded under pressure on Monday as investors continued to book profit at higher levels amid the ongoing Q2 earnings season. Despite a near 3-per cent surge in HDFC Bank share price, benchmark BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty50 indices closed in the negative territory today.At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 73 points (down 0.1%).Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty closed lower by 73 points (down 0.3%).HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto, and M&M are among the top gainers today.BPCL, Bajaj Finserv, and Kotak Mahindra on the other hand, were among the top losers today.The GIFT Nifty was trading at 24,772 down by 119 points at the time of writing.The BSE MidCap index ended 1.6% lower and the BSE SmallCap index ended 1.5% lower.Barring the auto sector all other sectoral indices were trading on a negative note with stocks in the oil & gas sector and the realty sector witnessing selling pressure.Dixon Technologies, HCL Technologies, and Tech Manhindra hit their respective 52-week highs today.The rupee is trading at 84.07 against the US$.Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading 0.7% higher at Rs 78,275 per 10 grams.Meanwhile, silver prices were trading 2.7% higher at Rs 97,963 per 1 kg.  Why Tejas Networks Share Price is RisingIn news from the telecom sector, shares of Tejas Networks are sharply higher by 10% in early trade on October 21, after a robust seven-fold topline growth, powered by the expansion of 4G business.The management said it […]

This week is another light one for economic data, so let me discuss a couple of points explaining why I am cautious, but not DOOOMing. Basically, because there are a lot of asterisks.Today let me follow up on initial jobless claims. The typical best way to look at these is YoY. If the percentage goes up by more than 10%, that’s worth a yellow caution flag. If it stays up more than 12.5% for at least two full months, that’s a red recession warning flag, although even in that case there are a few false positives.In the last two weeks, initial jobless claims (gold in the graph below) have been higher by over 15%. Ordinarily that would be a fairly serious cause for concern. But there were several special situations at work.First of all, Hurricane Helene caused issues in the panhandle of Florida and even more dramatically in North Carolina. As I have done in the past, my workaround is to exclude those two States and see what the YoY changes have been in the other 48 States (blue). Even using that workaround, claims have still been up over 15%. But it turns out there were labor issues in motor vehicle plants in Ohio and Michigan that also impacted the numbers. Excluding those States as well, the YoY% changes in the remaining 46 States only exceeded 10% in the last week (red):Part of what is going on is the base problem, i.e., what was happening during October last year. Note […]

GameSquare recently released some impressive numbers, following a potentially game-changing acquisition. We took a deep dive into the company, including an exclusive interview with its CEO, Justin Kenna.  Image Source: In 2023, GameSquare Holdings, Inc. (), with its media content and creative expertise, merged with Engine Media, an expert in data and tech capabilities, and got listed on NASDAQ as a publicly traded company that . The company operates in a booming but competitive industry, and their smartest move lately has been to acquire and consolidate Faze Clan, one of their largest competitors. GameSquare says their mission is to connect “brands and game publishers … with hard-to-reach Gen Z, Gen Alpha, and Millennial audiences.” They have a software-as-a-service (“SaaS”) program as well as a creative agency and self-owned IP. The SaaS program provides data-driven insights, influencer management, and managed services to game publishers. Content production, media strategy and placement are services offered by the creative agency. According to company :   GameSquare’s end-to-end platform includes Gaming Community Network (a “GCN”), a digital media company focused on gaming and esports audiences, Swingman LLC dba as Zoned, a gaming and lifestyle marketing agency, Code Red Esports Ltd. (“Code Red”), a leading esports organization, GameSquare Esports Inc. dba as Fourth Frame Studios, a creative production studio, Mission Supply, a merchandise and consumer products business, Frankly Media, programmatic advertising, Stream Hatchet, live streaming analytics, and Sideqik a social influencer marketing platform. Besides these core businesses, GameSquare also recently acquired  FaZe Clan, a leading esports and lifestyle […]

USD/CHF drops to near 0.8630 even though the US Dollar resumes its upside journey. The SNB is expected to cut interest rates again in December. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates gradually. The USD/CHF pair drops to near 0.8630 from the two-month high of 0.8370 in Monday’s North American session. The Swiss Franc pair corrects even though the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after a mild sell-off on Friday, suggesting sheer strength in the Swiss currency.Investors have underpinned the Swiss Franc against the Greenback despite the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut interest  again in December. This would be the fourth straight interest rate cut in a row. (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back to near 103.70 and aims to extend its upside above the 11-week high around 104.00. The appeal of the Greenback has strengthened as investors expect the  (Fed) to cut interest rates at a moderate pace.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December. Earlier, traders were anticipating the Fed to deliver a larger-than-usual rate cut of 50 bps in November. However, they priced out the scenario after a slew of upbeat United States (US)  for September.The upside move in the USD/CHF pair appears to have paused for a while. However, the upside move could resume after it breaks above October 17 high of 0.8670. A breakout move will drive the asset toward the round-level resistance of 0.8700 […]

In my daily analysis of the USD/JPY pair, the first thing I see is that we are hanging around the 200 Day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. The ¥150 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and if we can break above the ¥150 level, the market is likely to continue to go much higher. That being said, we also have a lot of noisy trading just waiting to happen, and I think that you have to look at this through the prism of a market that remains a positive “carry trade” opportunity. (Click on image to enlarge)At this point in time, it’s worth noting that the Bank of Japan has readily admitted that they cannot raise interest rates anytime soon, so I think you’ve got a situation where it is probably a situation where we continue to see the Japanese yen punished, although it’s probably worth noting that the action on Friday certainly seem to be a bit of profit-taking and perhaps a little bit of exhaustion from the yen selling off. Technical AnalysisAt this point in time, we are above the 200 Day EMA, at least at the moment, and that of course would be a very bullish sign.Furthermore, there are a lot of noisy areas underneath that should continue to offer value, and I think you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not we can find some type […]

The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an after-thought for most investors. But after reviewing year-to-date results for bonds ex-US, strategists may be inspired to rethink the oversight.Below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets are outperforming by a wide margin in 2024, based on a set of ETFs. VanEck Emerging Markets High Yield Bond ETF () has rallied 12.1% year to date through Friday’s close (Oct. 18). That’s a hefty premium over the rest of the field, including a global ex-US bond market benchmark (BNDX) and the US investment-grade benchmark (BND).Notably, HYEM’s rally is also adding leading the rally in US-based junk bonds (JNK): 12.1% vs. 7.8%.Several factors are providing a tail wind for EM junk, starting with a change in the interest-rate cycle following the Federal Reserve’s reduction in the Fed funds rate last month. If the cut is the start of new easing cycle, the shift is good news for emerging markets, which are sensitive to the US interest rates.“Eventually EM local-currency bonds should benefit from global easing,”  Anders Faergemann, a senior portfolio manager at Pinebridge Investments. “However, from a total return perspective, the relief rally in the US dollar and domestic delays to monetary-policy easing may have triggered some profit-taking.”Although the US dollar has rallied recently, it remains well below its previous peak set in the spring. All else equal, a softer dollar translates to […]