Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Win Back Ground After US Payrolls
May04

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Win Back Ground After US Payrolls

Предположение о денежно-кредитной политике США продолжает оставаться доминирующим фактором для цен на сырьевые товары. Неутешительная печать ISM в сфере услуг была приветствована, и трейдеры, вероятно, надеются, что она предвидит более медленный путь затягивания. Подъем аппетита к риску вытащил  гр грубость нефти  цены выше , наряду с фондовым индексом S & вожак P 500. Между тем, доллар США упал вместе с доходностью облигаций казначейских облигаций.  Цены на золото находились на пути к восстановлению ранее на сессии и сумели удержать большинство из них, несмотря на волатильность на закрытии. ВСЕ ГЛАЗА НА ДАННЫЕ О РАБОТЕ США В центре внимания теперь входит апрельский отчет о занятости в США, который, как ожидается, покажет, что создание рабочих мест ускорилось, а инфляция заработной платы удерживалась на твердой отметке в 2,7 процента в годовом исчислении. Все, что стесняется драматического отклонения, может открыть дверь для принятия прибыли на недавних шагах, когда доллар отступает, поскольку товары растут. ЗОЛОТОЙ ТЕХНИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ Цены на золото скорректированы осторожно выше. Ежедневное закрытие выше прежней поддержки на 1323.60 подвергает следующий восходящий барьер на 1333.42. В качестве альтернативы, движение ниже 1302,97-08,65 (1 марта, 23,6% коррекции Фибоначчи) раскрывает зону 1273,14-82,84 (уровень 38,2%, трендовая линия с декабря 2016 года). (Нажмите, чтобы увеличить) ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ Цены на сырую нефть продолжают колебаться в диапазоне ниже 70 долл. / Барр. Агрегат = ниже поддержки на уровне 67.36 демонстрирует прежнее сопротивление на уровне 66.22. В качестве альтернативы, ежедневное закрытие выше максимума 19 апреля на уровне 69,53 нацелено на расширение Фибоначчи на 38,2% дальше на 71,24 дальше. (Нажмите, чтобы увеличить)

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Friday, May 4
May04

AUDUSD Daily Analysis – Friday, May 4

AUDUSD пробил над падением линии тренда на своем 4-часовом графике, что говорит о том, что нисходящий тренд с 0,7813 уже завершился на уровне 0,7472. Дальнейшее ралли, скорее всего, будет видно в ближайшие дни, и цель будет в районе 0,7650. Поддержка на 0.7472, только пробой ниже этого уровня может привести к еще одному падению к 0.7300.

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                        Canadian Firms Are Keen To Invest, But Are Worried About Future Trade Barriers
May04

E Canadian Firms Are Keen To Invest, But Are Worried About Future Trade Barriers

On balance, the Bank Of Canada’s latest “Business Outlook Survey” was quite positive. However, the surveyed firms are clearly worried that they may be facing a rocky and possibly more volatile future primarily because of the Trump Presidency. Nonetheless, Canadian business opinion relating to the short-term outlook was fairly upbeat in the first quarter of 2018. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada survey was collected before the emergence of greater optimism about NAFTA negotiations and also before concerns about a global trade war became more prominent. With respect to some of the key survey questions, the balance of opinion on future sales and employment improved, while equipment investment plans remained at an above-average level. Canadian firms also expect sales growth to accelerate over the next year, a perspective which was reinforced by improved foreign orders. Though Canadian firms were concerned about trade protectionism, on balance they still expected U.S. demand to boost sales. Capacity pressures diminished somewhat in Canada compared to the last survey, although capacity problems still were significant for 47% of respondents. In the survey Canadian firms expected their costs to increase at a faster pace than last year largely due to new carbon taxes and higher minimum wages. The same firms expected to face tighter credit conditions in the year ahead. They were also expecting higher inflation, with 56% of respondents anticipating annual inflation to be above 2% over the next two years.  

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What Is The Relationship Between Interest Rates, Growth And Inflation?
May04

What Is The Relationship Between Interest Rates, Growth And Inflation?

Interest rates are on the rise, at their highest levels in over 4 years. What is that telling us, if anything, about growth and inflation? Let’s take a look… (Click on image to enlarge) While you often hear commentators suggesting there is a strong relationship between bond yields and the real economy, the evidence seems to be lacking. Since 1930, the correlation between annual change in real GDP and the 10-year treasury yield is effectively 0 (-0.05). There have been years in which interest rates are high and real GDP is low (1970, 1974, 1980, 1982, and 1990) and other years in which interest rates are low and real GDP is high (1936, 1939-43, and 1950). Examining quarterly data since 1962, we find a 0.05 correlation between the 10-Year Treasury yield and real GDP. The level of interest rates by itself seems to tell us nothing about real economic growth. Data source for all charts and tables herein: FRED. But what about nominal GDP growth? There does appear to be some information there, with a correlation of 0.58 between 10-Year yields and nominal GDP. Generally speaking, the higher the level of interest rates, the higher the level of nominal growth and vice versa. As you probably noticed in the chart above, though, swings in nominal GDP tend to be much larger than swings in interest rates. If we smooth out these changes in GDP over a 5-year period, the correlation between the two variables moves up to 0.85. So there appears to […]

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WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Friday, May 4
May04

WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – Friday, May 4

WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during trading on Thursday but found enough bearish pressure to turn things around and rallied rather significantly. By doing so, we have maintained the consolidation area that we have been in and going into the jobs number that’s not a huge surprise, as a lot of traders would be a little bit leery of putting too much money to work before that volatile announcement. I believe that if we can break above the $69 level, we are very likely to go to the $70 level after that. A breakdown below the $67 level should send this market looking for the $66 level. I believe there’s much more likelihood that we go higher than lower, but of course the US dollar moving after the jobs number could have a bit of an adverse effect on this market. Russia announcing that it was going to stick to the OPEC deal, despite having 2 months of noncompliance, during the session on Thursday also added a bit of bullish pressure. (Click on image to enlarge) Natural Gas Natural gas markets continue to sell-off every time it gets an opportunity, and as you can see we broke down below the $2.70 level at one point during the day. Traders probably squared their positions of going into the close as we are heading into the nonfarm payroll announcement, which of course will move the US dollar, and perhaps drive the perception of demand for natural gas […]

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