The headline second estimate of fourth-quarter 2017 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) marginally declined to a positive 2.5 % from the advance estimate’s 2.6 %. Year-over-year growth was unchanged from the advance estimate.
Analyst Opinion of GDP
There was little change between the advance and this second GDP estimate. The consumer spending declined from the previous quarter, but the real improvement came from fixed investment. I am not a fan of a quarter-over-quarter exaggerated method of measuring GDP – but my year-over-year preferred method showed moderate acceleration from last quarter.
The market expected (from Bloomberg/Econoday):
Real GDP Expressed As Year-over-Year Change
The same report also provides Gross Domestic Income which in theory should equal Gross Domestic Product. Some have argued the discrepancy is due to misclassification of capital gains as ordinary income – but whatever the reason, there are differences.
Real GDP (blue line) Vs. Real GDI (red line) Expressed As Year-over-Year Change
This second estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. (See caveats below.)