Quantitative Easing & The Nightmare It Has Created

While so many people claimed that Quantitative Easing (QE) would produce inflation for it was the creation of money, the truth is very far from this simplistic idea. The theory used by the central banks is seriously flawed and throw-back to ancient times before 1971. There use to be a difference between debt and cash when you could not use debt as cash to borrow on. Then it was less inflationary to borrow than to print. But that changed post-1971 and today if you want to trade you post TBills as cash. The REPO market has emerged where AAA securities can be borrowed against for the night.

Therefore, buying in bonds to inject cash into the system under the old way of running the monetary system pre-1971 made sense. Today, it is proving to be a FOOL’S GAME. Why? This is merely swapping debt for cash and the REAL money supply has not increased when the true definition of the base money supply in effect reality is debt + cash. Then you add the leverage from banking.

So what does this new reality mean? This is why the BONDS may not crash but instead become extinct. Under QE the central banks are the bidder supporting the market in the same stupid manner as attempting to peg a currency. The ECB under Draghai has lost its mine. They keep increase the percentage of bonds they are buying in hopes of creating inflation but nothing is working. The bonds will not crash, but instead, they could become extinct. In order for a crash to materialize, there has to be a free market.

Little known to most analysts was that during World War II, Congress ORDERED the Federal Reserve to do something similar to QE. The declared the Fed MUST support the bond market during the war and be the constant buyer at PAR. The market went sideways during the war and what we see is a flat line. 

In the case of the central bank artificially supporting the bond market during World War II, that decree was lifted in 1951. Our present situation is different insofar as the central banks have bought in all the long-term debt so there is a shortage of debt in the short-term. This is also why the Fed is accommodating the banks paying 0.25% on excess reserves.

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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