The headline residential building permits improved and construction completions improved. But we keep our eyes on the rolling averages because of the significant monthly fluctuations.
Analyst Opinion of Residential Building
The backward revisions this month were moderately upward.The nature of this industry normally has large variations from month to month (mostly due to weather) so the rolling averages are the best way to view this series – and it shows permits rate of growth improved, and completions rate of growth improved.
We consider this a much stronger report than last month.
Looking at residential construction employment, the year-over-year growth of employment is almost correlating with housing starts.
3 month Rolling Average for Year-over-Year Growth Unadjusted Data
US Census Headlines:
Note that Econintersect analysis herein is based on UNADJUSTED data – not the headline seasonally adjusted data.
When more building permits are issued than residences completed – the industry is expanding – and this expansion was underway for three years (except for the last two months in 2014). In the graph below, any value above zero shows more permits are being issued than completions.