The SPX has continued its rally towards the ideal 2410SPX region this past week that we presented to you a month ago. And, it seems we still have a few squiggles to the upside left before this pattern is completed, and then tested.
Those with a short bias in this market have not fared very well. At each and every twist and turn, the market has proved its bullish intent, and continues to confirm our expectations that our long-term target of 2537-2611SPX will be met, if not even possibly exceed by next year.
In fact, I have warned for quite some time that we will begin to see former bears turning quite bullish, and we have seen this occur over the last several months. While I still do not believe we have reached the euphoric levels needed to mark a significant top, many former bears are coming over to the dark side.
In fact, I read a comment to an article this past week which sums up most people’s feelings about the stock market:
“At this point, someone could drop a nuke and the markets would barely flinch.”
But, I have addressed this issue many times before. You see, when the market sentiment remains in an uptrend, whatever news is thrown at the market means nothing, until the market completes its pattern. That is exactly what is occurring right now, and explains the frustration represented in the quote above. And, for those of us who really understand how the market moves, this makes all the sense in the world. For us, there have been no surprises.
Up until recently, I have not been able to provide guidance with regard to specific timing in the market. Rather, our analysis is based upon price. So, while we have identified price turns and targets quite effectively and accurately through the years, I have not found any timing cycles which have provided more than 50% accuracy. Well, until now.
Other than traders of metals, some of the most emotional and angry traders/investors I have seen in the “blog-o-sphere” are those who solely follow timing cycles. While there are many different cycles people follow, most seem to confound those who attempt to trade them.
