Jobless Claims Record Low String Accelerates As US Bubble Economy Boils Over

The actual unmanipulated data on weekly first time unemployment claims paints a picture of a US economy that is in a bubble that is boiling over, driven by the massive central bank money printing campaigns and ZIRP.

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 283,000. The Wall Street conomist consensus guess was 295,000.

Rather than playing the headline number expectations game, our interest is in the actual, unmanipulated data. Tracking the actual total of state weekly counts is the only way to be to see what’s really going on. The Department of Labor reports the actual unadjusted data clearly and illustrates it in comparison with the previous year. The mainstream financial media ignores that data.

According to the Department of Labor the actual, unmanipulated numbers were as follows. “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 278,986 in the week ending
February 14, a decrease of 45,213 (or -13.9 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 24,353 (or -7.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 322,761 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014.”

Initial Claims and Annual Rate of Change

This year’s performance was stronger than average for that week of February. The actual week to week change was a decrease of 45,000 (rounded). The 10 year average for that week is a decrease of -38,000 (rounded). This year’s decrease compared with a decrease of 38,000 in the comparable week of 2014, and just -11,000 in that week of 2013. This hints at trend acceleration

Looking at the momentum of change over the longer term, actual first time claims were 13.6% lower than the same week a year ago. This too is on the stronger side of the normal range of the annual rate of change. Since 2010 the change rate has mostly fluctuated between -5% and -15%. There is no sign of the trend weakening yet and the recent data suggests some strengthening.

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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