ECRI’s WLI Growth Index At 55 Week Low

ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year – after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their coincident index and is discussed below.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI’s and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Ticks Down

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticks down to 144.5 from 144.8. The growth rate edges down to 5.0% from 5.1%, a 55-week low.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below: 

– read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji’s recent article on Bloomberg.

– watch Lakshman Achuthan’s recent interview on Reuters.

– read Lakshman Achuthan’s presentation ‘”America First” in Perspective’ at the Minsky Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly forward indicator using different pulse points thta ECRI’s WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index – a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.

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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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