Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 147.6, up 0.6 from the previous week and at another record high. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.19%, down from 2.46% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 3.3, down from the previous week.
“Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off”
ECRI’s recent article recounts two thousand years of world GDP history, reminding readers that India and China have been the winners throughout. The West has only made a dent in world GDP since the Industrial Revolution. In order for the US to maintain its place in global GDP and to guarantee a fair shot at prosperity, the middle and working classes must benefit. Read more
The ECRI Indicator Year-over-Year
Below is a chart of ECRI’s smoothed year-over-year percent change since 2000 of their weekly leading index. The latest level is above where it was at the start of the last recession.
RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI’s WLIg, the Weekly Leading Economic Indicator (WLEI), which uses 50 different time series from various categories, including the Corporate Bond Composite, Treasury Bond Composite, Stock Market Composite, Labor Market Composite, and Credit Market Composite. An interesting point to notice — back in 2011, ECRI made an erroneous recession call, while the WLEI did not trigger such a premature call. However, both indicators are now generally in agreement and moving in the same direction. Frequently the latest RecessionAlert data is not available at publish time and will be posted at a later point.
Appendix: A Closer Look at the ECRI Index
The first chart below shows the history of the Weekly Leading Index and highlights its current level.
For a better understanding of the relationship of the WLI level to recessions, the next chart shows the data series in terms of the percent-off the previous peak. In other words, new weekly highs register at 100%, with subsequent declines plotted accordingly.