E Mid Cap Best & Worst Report – December 10, 2014

Since 2010, the best scoring names in our weekly mid cap reports have outpaced the S&P 400 by a median 4.07% in the following year. The best performers from our list from 1 year ago are ILMN up 91%, KNX up 85%, ALXN up 63%, IRF up 62%, and LVLT up 60%.


  • The top scoring mid cap sector is utilities.
  • The best mid cap industry is auto dealers.
  • The average mid cap score is 67.91, above the four week moving average score of 66.47. The average mid cap stock is trading -14.11% below its 52 week high, 2.8% above its 200 dma, has 6.69 days to cover held short, and is expected to post EPS growth of 16.48% next year.

    The top mid cap sector is utilities. Technology, industrial goods, healthcare, consumer goods, and services also score above average. Financials score in line. Basic materials score below average.

    The highest scoring mid cap industry is auto dealers (PAG, GPI, CPRT). According to Ward’s, the North American November light vehicle daily sales rate increased 8.7% year-over-year. Profit friendly light truck sales grew 15.7%. Semi ICs (IRF, MSCC) are strong. Semiconductor book-to-bill historically bottoms heading into winter and then accelerates through the first six months of the year. Truckers (ODFL, HTLD, KNX) offer upside on rising freight demand and spot prices. The trucking industry added 3,000 jobs in November. Restaurant (WEN, CBRL, CAKE, EAT) foot traffic and same store sales growth benefit revenue through holiday EPS reporting season. October food services retail sales totaled $48.6 billion in October, up from $45.5 billion last year. Investment brokers (SF, MKTX) are high scoring as trading volume benefits from market strength and asset allocation adjustments.

    In mid cap basics, only synthetics (MTX, AXLL) score above the universe average score. In consumer goods, focus on textiles (DECK, WWW, COLM) and processed & packaged goods (HAIN, FLO). In financials, concentrate on investment brokers, regional banks (OZRK, ASBC, FHN, CYN, HBHC), and asset managers (EV, JNS). The percentage of banks tightening standards for consumer loans and credit cards reached -8.8% in Q4, an 18th consecutive quarter of easing. October commercial & industrial loans at commercial banks was $1,742 billion, up from $1,688 billion in June. Medical instruments (HRC, PODD, TFX, PKI, NUVA, DXCM) are best in healthcare. Industrial electrical (RBC, AOS), aerospace/defense (HXL, ESL, TDY, CW), and residential construction (NVR, RYL) are top scoring in industrial goods. In services, auto dealers, trucking, and restaurants are best. Semi ICs, technical & system software (MENT, CDNS, TYL), and semi equipment & materials (TER, ENTG) score highest across technology.

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    Author: Travis Esquivel

    Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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