E Fake Inflation Expectations Meet Good And Bad Inflation

You have to ask yourselves if inflation expectation increases amount to fake news. Here is a recent FRED chart of inflation expectations:

5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 

We know that this inflation expectation increase has failed in the past. It failed in 2013/14 with the bond tantrum. It failed in early 2016. It failed in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, and in December, 2007. That was a big, big fail. This is the most failed economic indicator ever devised. But people continue to push it as if it is truth. Maybe eventually it will be true, kind of like those who predict recessions every year will get it right now and then.

Here is the longer chart showing just how this indicator is always bullish, with results that are, well, just the opposite:

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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