An Eventful Week – Interest Rates

10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.Over this week, the end-of-year CME Fed funds futures has dropped 15 bps. By year’s end, the Fed funds rate will be down 78 bps.Figure 1: Fed funds (bold black), CME futures implied as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), in %. Source: Fed via FRED, CME, author’s calculations.Business Cycle Indicators, With Employment, Monthly GDPEmployment: Different Measures“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument On Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”