Strong Payroll Bounce +271,000; December Rate Hike Likely

Initial Reaction 

Following last month’s downside shock, comes this month’s big surprise to the upside. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was 190,000 jobs and the headline total was 271,000. The unemployment rate declined to 5.0%, the lowest since April 2008. A rate hike in December is likely.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance 

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +271,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +320,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -7,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -235,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: +198,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 at 5.0% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 9.8% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +216,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +313,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: -97,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: Unchanged at 62.4 – Household Survey (a 40-year low)
  • October 2015 Employment Report 

    Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report.

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction. 

    Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

    Nonfarm Employment

    Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

    Hours and Wages

     of all private employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was unchanged at 33.4 hours.

     of private workers rose $0.09 to $21.18. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.08 to $20.98.

    For discussion of income distribution, please see 

    Birth Death Model

    Starting January 2014, I dropped the 

     charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back.

    Print Friendly, PDF & Email

    Author: Travis Esquivel

    Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

    Share This Post On