OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.44%) are up +0.29% and European stocks are up +0.14% as the markets await the ECB’s decision today on possible additional stimulus measures. The markets are expecting at least an interest rate cut by the ECB today and or an expansion of its quantitative easing. Weakness in crude oil and metals undercut energy and raw-material producing stocks, while an unexpected decline in German Jan exports pressured European stocks. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.26%, Hong Kong -0.06%, China -2.02%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia -0.14%, Singapore -0.05%, South Korea +0.96%, India -0.69%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down over 2% after Chinese consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 19 months, which may limit further stimulus measures by the government.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.20%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD)is down -0.21%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.26%.
Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 +0.15%) are up +7 ticks.
The German Jan trade balance shrank to a surplus of 13.6 billion euros, less than expectations of +17.0 billion euros and the smallest surplus in 17 months. Jan exports unexpectedly fell -0.5% m/m, weaker than of +0.8% m/m. Jan imports rose +1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m.
China Feb CPI rose +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.8% y/y and the fastest pace of increase in 19 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -3,000 to 275,000, previous +6,000 to 278,000) and continuing claims (expected -7,000 to 2.250 million, previous +3,000 to 2.257 million), (2) the Treasury’s auction of $12 billion of 30-year T-bonds, and (3) Feb monthly budget statement (expected -$196.3 billion, Jan +$55.163 billion).
There are 5 of the Russell 1000 companies that report earnings today: Dollar General (consensus $1.26), Care Capital Properties (0.79), Four Corners Property Trust (0.45), VeriFone Systems (0.46), Ulta Salon (1.54).
