Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of November 20
November 20
Leading Indicators
0.4%
-0.1
0.6
November 21
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – October
0.20
0.17
0.2
Existing Home Sales – October
5.430M
5.390
5.425
November 22
Durable Goods Sales – October
0.5%
2.0
0.5
Initial Unemployment Claims
235K
249
240
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – November (r)
97.8
97.8
97.9
November 23
Thanksgivng
November 24
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
54.9
54.6
54.6
PMI Services Flash Index
55.5
55.3
55.4
Week of November 27
November 27
New Home Sales – October
630K
667
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
25.0
27.6
November 28
International Trade in Goods – October
-$66.0B
-64.1
FHFA Housing Price Index – Sept
0.5%
0.7
S&P Case/Shiller Index – September
Twenty City M/M
0.4%
0.4
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.3
0.5
Twenty City Y/Y
6.2
5.9
Consumer Confidence – November
126.3
125.9
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
15
12
November 29
GDP – Q2 (r)
3.1%
3.0
Pending Home Sale Index – October
107.0
106.0
November 30
Personal Income – October
0.3%
0.4
Personal Spending
0.3
1.0
Chicago PMI
64.2
66.2
December 1
Auto Sales* – November
17.7M
18.1
Car Sales
6.4
6.6
Truck Sales
11.3
11.5
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
ISM (Mfg) – November
58.5
58.7
Construction Spending – October
0.6%
0.3
