EC Whistling Past The Russian Graveyard

The economic challenges facing Russia, the eighth largest economy (and 2nd most powerful military) in the world, are intensifying. I’ll let the charts speak for themselves.

The Ruble is collapsing, hitting new all-time lows against the U.S. Dollar.

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This is leading to a significant increase in inflation, with prices rising 9.1% over the past year.

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Credit concerns are growing, with CDS Spreads at multi-year highs.

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Interest rates on their debt is moving in the opposite direction to most other countries globally, with the 10-year yield now above 11%.

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The Russian stock market is at its lowest level since 2009, down more than 50% from its recent peak in 2011.

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Preoccupied with monetary easing in the U.S., Japan, and Europe, the global equity markets have completely ignored these issues thus far. With the Dow hitting new all-time highs daily, investors seem to be whistling past the Russian graveyard. The prevailing view is that more QE in Japan, the prospect of QE in Europe, and 0% interest rates here in the U.S. render everything else irrelevant.

Perhaps this will remain true in the U.S. equity market through year-end as seasonality is favorable, but I would note that there is one area of the market that continues to suggest 2015 may be a different story: the bond market.

Credit spreads are wider in 2014 and wider than year-ago levels. This suggests higher volatility in equities is likely as I wrote about recently.

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Also, the yield curve continues to flatten, suggesting the odds of slowing economic growth have increased.

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Will anyone care about these issues if the ECB announces QE in early 2015? Maybe not, but in a more rational world it is difficult to assume Russia’s precipitous decline will be ignored forever.

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Author: Travis Esquivel

Travis Esquivel is an engineer, passionate soccer player and full-time dad. He enjoys writing about innovation and technology from time to time.

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