Bitcoin’s much-hyped “halving” has come and gone.According to data from mempool.space and Blockchain.com, the “halving” occurred at 8:10 PM New York time on Friday, April 19th.This highly-awaited quadrennial episode, which has historically occurred about once every 4 years, slashes the rewards for Bitcoin miners in half.“Halvings” make new Bitcoins scarcer, and the limited incoming supply has historically pushed prices higher. And since that intraday low on April 19th, Bitcoin has soared by over 12%. The excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s latest “halving” has also helped push up other cryptocurrencies, as well as crypto-linked stocks.Here’s how they’ve fared since the halving-eve (since the US market close on April 17th):Cryptocurrencies Chainlink: +17.8% Solana: +17.3% Cardano: +17.2% Avalanch: +14.3% Ripple: +11% Bitcoin Cash: +10.3% Polygon: +9.7% Dogecoin: +8.3% Ethereum: +7% Crypto-linked stocks Stronghold Digital Mining: +53.6% Riot Platforms: +41% Cipher Mining: +33.3% Cleanspark: +28% Hut 8 Mining: +24% BIT Mining: +22.7% Marathon Digital: +20% Hive Blockchain: +13.1% Argo Blockchain: +6.7% Coinbase: +5.6% However, back to Bitcoin itself … Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) now stands in the way of what’s widely expected within the crypto community to be the “OG crypto’s” next bull run. As Bitcoin matures, and performs more in line with other “traditional” risk assets (e.g. global stocks), attentions now return to fundamental factors. Bitcoin and other cryptos are set to sway in line with broader risk sentiment, with the Fed’s policy outlook still in the driver’s seat. In order for Bitcoin’s next bull run to commence in earnest, risk-on sentiment has to remain intact. Otherwise, risk-off sentiment  may force Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrencies complex to unwind recent gains. Such […]

Did yesterday’s rebound mark the end of the correction?Monday’s trading session was quite bullish, with the S&P 500 index climbing by 0.87% and closing above 5,000 level following its sell-off last week. On Friday, the index hit a new medium-term low of 4,953.56. This marked its lowest level since late February, with a decline of over 311 points or 5.9% from the record high of 5,264.85 on February 28. Yesterday, stock prices rebounded as tensions in the Middle East somewhat eased, and investors shifted their focus to the upcoming quarterly results.Today, sentiment appears mixed, with the futures contract showing a gain of 0.1%, indicating a slightly higher opening for the index. The S&P 500 is likely to fluctuate along the key 5,000 level as investors await earnings releases from major companies. After today’s session closes, we’ll receive numbers from TSLA and V, followed by META tomorrow, and GOOG, INTC, MSFT on Thursday. “Closing the month of March with a gain of 3.1%, the question arises: Will the S&P 500 further extend the bull market in April, or is a downward correction on the horizon? From a contrarian standpoint, such a correction seems likely, but the overall trend remains bullish.”The investor sentiment has worsened last week, as indicated by the Wednesday’s  The AAII sentiment is a contrary indicator in the sense that highly bullish readings may suggest excessive complacency and a lack of fear in the market. Conversely, bearish readings are favorable for market upturns.On Friday, the market broke a significant support level, marked […]

Over the last few weeks, the market tone has changed. The S&P 500 is no longer tracking a steadily rising trend line higher. Further, the most recent market outperformers are very different from the Magnificent Seven, which led the way higher over the last six months. For investors, the changes lead to important questions. For instance, are the Magnificent Seven taking a break before retaking the outperformance throne? If not, which stocks, sectors, and factors may outperform the market? To help us answer these questions, we share analysis from the newly upgraded .The table below shows the relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks versus the S&P 500. Their performance has been dreadful over the last five days, but in the previous 20 days leading up to last week, they beat the market. and had last week’s worst relative performance, giving up over 10% to the S&P 500. However, NVDA has been consistently grossly outperforming the market over prior periods, while Tesla has been giving up ground since last July. If you notice, we added XLU, the utility sector ETF, to the list of the Magnificent Seven stocks. Suppose utilities are on the cusp of leading the market for a stretch of time. In that case, the SimpleVisor analysis we share further below will help us appreciate its performance and that of its underlying stocks versus the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the market. What To Watch Today EarningsEconomy Market Trading Update Yesterday, the market tried to rally early but […]

Bullish view Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000. Add a stop-loss at 64,000. Timeline: 1-2 days.  Bearish view Set a sell-stop at 65,000 and a take-profit at 63,000. Add a stop-loss at 69,000. (Click on image to enlarge)Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery in the past few days as investors cheered . The BTC/USD pair jumped to a high of 66,855 on Tuesday morning, its highest swing since April 13th.This recovery happened as a risk-on sentiment continued in the market. That is evidenced by the strong performance of American equities, with the Dow Jones, , and  rising by over 1%.Other global stocks also continued rising on Monday, with the FTSE 100 index soaring to a record high. Some of the other top indices like , DAX index, and CAC 40 continued rising as well.Bitcoin also jumped as the market embraced the new normal of low Bitcoin production after the halving event. This halving came at a time when the supply of Bitcoin coins in exchanges has dropped to a multi-month low.Looking ahead, the key macro events to watch will be Thursday’s US GDP and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. These numbers will be important because of their impact on the Federal Reserve.Economists expect the data to show that US inflation held steady in March while the economy continued growing in Q1. If these numbers are strong, they will point to a  Federal Reserve. Most analysts expect the Federal Reserve will point to restrictive rates for longer. BTC/USD technical analysisThe  surged to a […]

Photo by  on   The oil market traded little changed in the early trading session today as part of a broader risk-off move across markets. Meanwhile, the LME aluminium tom-next spread surged to the highest level since May 2021, with on-warrant stocks falling to record lows sending supply jitters to the market.  Energy – Oil trades in a narrow rangeBoth ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI continue to trade in a narrow range this morning as Middle East tensions have eased, while the Federal Reserve has signalled it might keep the rates higher for longer raising demand concerns. Recent reports suggest that both Iran and Israel consider the current operations concluded against one another, with no follow-up action required for now. Meanwhile, the US and Europe are preparing for new sanctions against Iran – although these may not have a material impact on oil supply in the immediate term. Timespreads continue to signal strength, with Brent prompt spread trading in a backwardation of US$0.95/bbl as of today, compared to a backwardation of US$0.79/bbl a week ago following geopolitical uncertainty and OPEC+ supply cuts.European natural gas prices declined for a second straight session today, with front-month TTF futures falling 4.7% to trade around EUR29/MWh in the early trading session. The recent decline is largely due to higher inventories and soft demand. Meanwhile, inventory remains very comfortable with storage tanks filled at 62% of capacity, which is above the five-year average of 44% full for this time of the year. While European natural gas prices declined, US prices […]

Image Source:   ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart)Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL. In our ASX Stocks Top 50 forecast service, we have accurately forecast a price decline from a high of around 17.15 down to around 16.00 at the current low. And we are now identifying COL could move higher in the short term outlook.ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) AnalysisFunction: Counter trend (Minute degree, green)Mode: CorrectiveStructure: Double ZigzagPosition: Wave (b)-purple of Wave ((y))-greenLatest forecast: Accurate forecastDetails: The short-term outlook indicates that wave ((y))-green is unfolding as a Zigzag, and wave (a)-purple has ended. Therefore, wave (b)-purple is expected to continue pushing lower, seeking support around 16.01 – 15.71 before wave (c)-purple returns to rise higher. Pushing higher off 17.15 would renew the bull market view.Invalidation point: 15.35ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (4-Hour Chart)ASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisASX: COLES GROUP LIMITED. – COL 4-Hour Chart AnalysisFunction: Counter trend (Minute degree, green)Mode: MotiveStructure: ImpulsePosition: Wave (c)-purple of Wave ((y))-greenDetails: The shorter-term outlook suggests it appears the (b)-purple wave has bottomed, but a move higher than level 16.5 is needed to confirm this outlook. If this forecast is correct, wave (c)-purple will be opened to continue pushing higher, aiming for higher targets.Invalidation point: 15.37 Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of […]