Image Source:  S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions The 24Q1 Y/Y adjusted blended earnings growth estimate is 7.4%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 7.0%. Please note that the 24Q1 year-over-year growth rate for Bristol Myers Squibb reflects an approximate $12 billion one-time charge related to its acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics. When including this one-time item, the S&P 500 24Q1 earnings growth rate declines to 4.3%. Of the 190 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 24Q1, 78.4% reported above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 66%. The 24Q1 Y/Y blended revenue growth estimate is 3.4%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate for the index is 4.2%. (Click on image to enlarge)Click  to view the full report.S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q1 – Tuesday, April 23Blackstone’s Cash Pile Will Only Buy So Much TimeMoney Markets Report Weekly Outflow of $118.5 Billion, Third Largest On Record

Image courtesy of  The US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter of 2024, with the gross domestic product () increasing at an annualized rate of , falling short of the projected 2.2%. The lackluster growth was primarily attributed to a significant slowdown in consumer spending and reduced federal government spending. US GDP Grew Slower than Expected in Q1 2024 The GDP report revealed that businesses reduced their inventories, which detracted approximately 0.9 percentage points from the overall growth rate. The gap between exports and imports also widened, with imports increasing and exports slightly declining. While business investments, particularly in equipment and intellectual property, showed modest growth, it was not enough to offset the negative impacts from other sectors. Residential fixed investment, however, did increase, providing a small counterbalance to the broader economic slowdown. Local and state government spending was mildly up, contrasting with the federal spending cuts.Economists have  about the sustainability of economic growth, given the current  and ongoing global economic uncertainties. The latest GDP report raises questions about the resilience of the US economy and its ability to maintain a steady growth trajectory in the face of these challenges. US Indices Slide, VIX Shoots Up Following the release of the GDP data, major US stock indices experienced a significant downturn. At the time of writing, the  traded at 5,010.67, down by 60.96 points or 1.20%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 606.01 points or 1.58% to 37,854.91. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also suffered, trading at 15,458.22, down […]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average () was last seen down a whopping 620 points, pacing for its biggest single-day percentage drop since March 2023. Smaller-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the first quarter is weighing on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) also down triple digits while the S&P 500 Index () carries a hefty midday deficit of its own.Plus, consumer prices saw a first-quarter rise of 3.4%, much higher than the 1.8% jump analysts anticipated, underscoring the persistently high inflationary environment. These data points once more bring the Federal Reserve’s  into focus, with traders now predicting just one cut for the year. PepsiCo Inc (Nasdaq: ) stock is up 0.6% to trade at $178.52 after the  received a price-target hike from Barclays hike to $185 from $184. So far today, 32,000 calls and 14,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is eight times the intraday average volume. New positions are being bought to open at the most popular contract, the weekly 4/26 182.50-strike call that expires tomorrow. PEP has added 4.7% in 2024.Newmont Corporation (NYSE: ) stock is among the New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) leaders today, up 8.1% at $41.74 at last glance. The gold company easily beat top- and bottom-line expectations for the first quarter thanks to  and sales. The stock hit its highest level since December earlier, bouncing off the 100-day moving average as demand for safe-haven assets increases amid inflation pressure.  Meanwhile, ATN International Inc (Nasdaq: ) stock is near the bottom of the NYSE, last seen down 29.6% to trade at $20.22. This bear gap comes after […]

Image Source:  The FTSE 100 in Britain reached a new all-time high on Thursday, driven by a surge in miner Anglo American’s stock following a buyout offer from BHP Group. Additionally, investors were pleased with the strong financial results from several leading companies such as Unilever, AstraZeneca, and Barclays. Following BHP’s announcement of a buyout offer for Anglo American, the London-listed miner’s shares soared by 12.7% to their highest level in nine months, valuing the company at 31.1 billion pounds ($38.84 billion). If successful, this deal would establish the world’s largest copper miner, accounting for approximately 10% of global output. However, BHP’s stock on the UK market experienced a 3.7% decline in response to the news.Unilever experiences a surge in stock value following better-than-expected sales results. At 9:23, shares of Unilever, a consumer goods group, rose by 4.1% to 4,023 pence, making it one of the top gainers on the FTSE 100 index. The company reported a 4.4% increase in sales, reaching 15 billion pounds ($18.74 billion) in the first quarter. Unilever maintains its full-year outlook, projecting a sales growth of 3% to 5%. CEO Hein Schumacher expressed confidence in the company’s ability to achieve sustained volume growth and accelerate gross margin expansion. The stock had experienced a decrease of approximately 13.5% in the last 12 months as of the previous closing.Barclays experienced a 4% rise in its shares, reaching 198.53p, the highest in over a year. This increase made the stock one of the top percentage gainers on the […]

Image Source:  Snap () is expected to report results of its first quarter on Thursday, October 25, with a conference call scheduled for 5:30 pm EDT. What to watch for: GUIDANCE THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN: BofA lowered the firm’s price target on Snap to $14 from $16, while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects a “modest beat” in Q1, aided by healthy advertising environment, but views Q2 revenue guidance as “the biggest unknown and the most important driver of post-call stock performance,” BofA tells investors in a preview note. In that regard, the firm views Meta’s () outlook as “likely resetting Snap bar” and is lowering its Q2 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 2%.While BofA remains on the sidelines on Snap given revenue volatility and long-term user monetization, it expects some stock support given historical P/S floor around 2.5-times forward revenues, and potential benefit from a TikTok ban. INCREMENTAL POSITIVE BIAS: Roth MKM keeps a Neutral rating and $14 price target on Snap but notes that the firm has an “incremental positive bias” on the stock heading into Q1 earnings. The company’s upside Q2 EBITDA potential is driven by slowing AI/ML infrastructure spend and recent layoffs, while its North America daily active user metric should rise, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Snap’s improving brand advertising trends, likely Amazon.com () partnership contribution, and Snapchat+ traction also offers greater confidence in the near-term revenue outlook for the company, Roth MKM added. MIXED SENTIMENT: Stifel lowered the firm’s price target on Snap to $12 from $14 […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money supply figure. It was made popular by the late  who tracked the metric weekly as an indicator of where the economy might be headed. In 2020, the Fed started reporting the data monthly instead of weekly. It should also be noted that Money Supply data can be heavily revised in future months. Recent Trends Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply is delayed by a month. The large increase in seasonally adjusted Money Supply shown below occurred in March.(Click on image to enlarge)Figure: 1 MoM M2 Change (Seasonally Adjusted) March was a large surge with an annualized increase of 5.5%.(Click on image to enlarge)Figure: 2 M2 Growth Rates That is actually well above the March average of +4.6%.(Click on image to enlarge)Figure: 3 Average Monthly Growth Rates Non-seasonally adjusted numbers show data through early April, with a large uptick in the two most recent periods.(Click on image to enlarge)Figure: 4 MoM M2 Change (Non-Seasonally Adjusted) The weekly data below shows the activity over the last month in unadjusted money supply. You can see the big jump in 4 of the last 5 weeks.(Click on image to enlarge)Figure: 5 WoW M2 Change The “Wenzel” 13-week Money SupplyThe late Robert Wenzel of  used a modified calculation to track Money Supply. He used a trailing 13-week average growth rate annualized as defined in his book . He specifically used the weekly data that […]