A Different Look At The US Yield Curve
Aug06

A Different Look At The US Yield Curve

The US yield curve, as indicated by the spread between the 10-year and 2-year T-Note yields, made a new 10-year extreme over the past fortnight, meaning that it recently became the ‘flattest’ it has been in more than 10 years. While this may indicate that the boom is nearing its end, it definitely indicates that the transition from boom to bust has not yet begun. As explained numerous times in the past, the ‘flattening’ of the yield curve (short-term interest rates rising relative to long-term interest rates) is a characteristic of a monetary-inflation-fueled economic boom. It doesn’t matter how flat the yield curve becomes or even if it becomes inverted, the signal that the boom has ended and that a bust encompassing a recession is about to begin is the reversal of the curve’s major trend from flattening to steepening. To put it another way, the signal that the proverbial chickens are coming home to roost is short-term interest rates peaking RELATIVE TO long-term interest rates and then beginning to decline relative to long-term interest rates. This generally will happen well before the Fed sees a problem and begins to cut its targeted short-term interest rate. The following chart highlights the last two major reversals of the US yield curve from flattening to steepening. These reversals were confirmed about 6 months prior to the recessions that began in March-2001 and December-2007. The fact that the yield curve is still hitting new extremes in terms of ‘flatness’ suggests that the next […]

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                        Forex Analysis Of EUR/USD For Monday, August 6
Aug06

E Forex Analysis Of EUR/USD For Monday, August 6

First, we look into the previous day trade and what happened on August 3, 2018, and the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.15839 and went high at 1.16074 and gone to low at 1.15627 and finally closed at 1.15658. The calculated pivot point for the day is 1.15786. The difference between high and low was 44 pips and there was a little chance for traders to take the opportunity and benefit. For the last many days, this pair is moving from 1.1530 to 1.1790 levels, now, it is going to the lowest levels from previous low levels since the dollar became strong due to some events.  Traders should be cautious since it reached the oversold region and it may go to some recovery levels. Four Hour chart followers & traders are waiting for an opportunity to buy at 1.15650, 1.15912 levels and sell at 1.15564, 1.15309 levels to get more profits. BUYING AND SELLING LEVELS TO BE OBSERVED BY TRADERS Level First Level Second Level Third Level Selling Level 1.1500 1.1470 1.1440 Buying Level 1.1562 1.1586 1.1607 TODAY EVENTS TO BE OBSERVED AND TRADERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AT THESE TIMES AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE EVENTS EURUSD FUNDAMENTALS TODAY GMT Event Actual Previous 06:00  EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) -4.0% 2.6% 06:00  EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) -0.8% 4.4% n/a  EUR Individual Investment (Current Year)   5% 08:30  EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 14.7 12.1 n/a  USD Loan Officer Survey     15:30  USD 3-Month Bill Auction   2% 15:30  USD 6-Month Bill Auction   2.16%

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Sensex Ends 136 Points Higher; Banking Stocks Witness Buying
Aug06

Sensex Ends 136 Points Higher; Banking Stocks Witness Buying

Indian share markets continued to trade in the green during the closing hours of the trading session and ended the day on a positive note. Gains were largely seen in the banking sector and telecom sector. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 136 points (up 0.4%) and the NSE Nifty closed higher by 26 points (up 0.2%). The BSE Mid Cap index ended the day up by 0.3%, while the BSE Small Cap index ended the day up by 0.4%. Asian stock markets finished on a mixed note as of the most recent closing prices. The Hang Seng stood up by 0.5% and the Nikkei was trading down by 0.1%. The Shanghai Composite stood lower by 1.3%. European markets were trading on a positive note. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.20%. The DAX, was up by 0.27% while the CAC 40 was up by 0.19% The rupee was trading at 68.78 to the US$ at the time of writing. In the news from FMCG sector, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) share price was in focus today after the company said it has signed an agreement with Vijaykant Dairy and Food Products Ltd (VDFPL) and its group company to acquire ‘Adityaa Milk’ brand ice cream and frozen desserts and front-end distribution network across geographies for an undisclosed sum.The company said that this proposed acquisition is in line with HUL’s strategic intent to strengthen its position in the rapidly growing ice cream and frozen dessert market in India. As per the company statement, VDFPL will manage the business until the transaction is completed, and will also […]

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BTC/USD Forex Signal – Monday, August 6
Aug06

BTC/USD Forex Signal – Monday, August 6

Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered, as neither of the key levels were reached that day. Today’s BTC/USD Signals Risk 0.75% per trade. Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time, during the next 24-hour period today. Long Trade Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $6,805, $6,671, or $6,445. Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run. Short Trade Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame following the next touch of $7,266. Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $200 in profit by price. Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $200 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run. The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels. BTC/USD Analysis I wrote last Thursday that the level at $7,813 which […]

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US REITs Surged Last Week While Foreign Real Estate Tumbled
Aug06

US REITs Surged Last Week While Foreign Real Estate Tumbled

Securitized real estate shares dominated last week’s performance rankings at the extremes for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. US real estate investment trusts (REITs) posted the highest return for the week through August 3 while foreign REITs/real estate suffered the biggest loss. Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) popped 3.2% last week, the first weekly gain for the ETF in a month. The rally lifted the fund to a two-year high. The buying was “propelled by strong quarterly results across much of the sector,” according to Hoya Capital Real Estate. “Fundamentals appear to have inflected higher in 2018, aided by a strong labor market.” While US REITs climbed sharply last week, an ETF that holds the foreign counterparts for real estate shares posted last week’s biggest setback for the major asset classes. Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate (VNQI) lost 1.1% over the five trading days through August 3. The selling left the ETF near its lowest price so far in 2018. A factor in VNQI’s recent weakness: a strong US dollar. Since VNQI doesn’t hedge foreign currency exposure, the prices of offshore real estate securities in dollar terms suffer when the greenback strengthens in foreign exchange markets, all else equal. The US Dollar Index ended last week at close to a one-year high, putting pressure on VNQI and other foreign securities after translating prices into US currency. Turning to the one-year trend, US stocks continue to dominate the field by a wide margin. Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) closed up […]

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Nutrisystem Rallies After Legion Partners Sees Path To $90 Share Price
Aug06

Nutrisystem Rallies After Legion Partners Sees Path To $90 Share Price

Legion Partners Asset Management late Thursday disclosed a 5.22% stake in Nutrisystem (NTRI), representing over 1.5M shares. The filing allows for activism. Legion believes the current market price of the shares does not reflect Legion’s intrinsic value. In the firm’s view, one of the key areas that does not appear to be well understood or fully appreciated by the market is the opportunity for the company to improve the efficiency of its approximately $200M annual marketing expense. Historically, Nutrisystem has relied primarily on short form television marketing, Legion writes in a regulatory filing. Further, Nutrisystem’s cost of acquiring an individual customer has increased annually from approximately $184 in 2007 to over $300 in 2017, the firm contends, citing its own estimate. Legion Partners believes the company can lower customer acquisition costs “materially” over the next several years by shifting its media mix to more effective digital marketing channels and initiatives. In addition, the firm believes improvements to the company’s digital product portfolio “can substantially increase customer lifetime value.” The “impact of gaining marketing efficiencies through digital advertising and upgrading the digital product portfolio should be reflected in a rapid expansion in the profitability” of Nutrisystem, contends Legion. It estimates that if the company can improve its overall digital strategy and marketing efficiency, the resulting decline in customer acquisition costs and reacceleration in customer growth could double reported earnings per share from $1.90 in fiscal 2017 to almost $4.00 in fiscal 2020, causing the valuation of the stock “to move from […]

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