Crude Oil – Verification Of Breakout?
Mar18

Crude Oil – Verification Of Breakout?

We could summarize the recent price action in crude oil in one word: tests. What’s next?  Technical Picture of Crude OilCrude oil closed last week above the previously broken Dec. 2023 peak and the barrier of $80. Did it change much in the medium- and short-term picture of the commodity? In today’s article, I share with you my thoughts on this subject. Have a nice read.(Click on image to enlarge)(Click on image to enlarge)Let’s start with quotes from Friday’s Oil Trading Alert: (…) yesterday’s upswing took crude oil to the strong resistance area created by the upper border of the red triangle, the 50% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire Oct.-Dec. 2023 decline and the yellow resistance zone based on the early and mid-Oct.2023 lows (marked with the black resistance line on the weekly chart). Additionally, the increase materialized on even smaller volume than the white candle from Wednesday, which raises some doubts about the strength of the bulls – especially when we factor in the weekly volume (yup, the week is not over yet, but the volume so far is quite disappointing when we consider the above-mentioned breakouts). On the weekly chart, we also see that the indicators moved to their overbought areas (for the first time since Oct.2023), which suggests that the space for gains may be limited and reversal is just around the corner. From today’s point of view, we see that the situation developed in tune with the above scenario and crude oil moved a bit lower during Friday’s session.As […]

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Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs – Monday, March 18
Mar18

Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs – Monday, March 18

Image Source:   The EUR/USD currency pairTechnical indicators of the currency pair: Prev Open: 1.0885 Prev Close: 1.0888 % chg. over the last day: +0.03 % According to ECB Governing Council Representative Rehn, the projected inflation in the Eurozone this year and next will be close to the 2% target, allowing the ECB to gradually start taking its foot off the monetary policy brake as summer approaches. Swaps are pricing in a 25 bps chance of an ECB rate cut of 8% at the next meeting on April 11 and 85% at the June 6 meeting. The Eurozone will release its final inflation report today, but no changes are expected.Trading recommendations Support levels: 1.0876, 1.0867, 1.0840, 1.0822, 1.0796 Resistance levels: 1.0902, 1.0930, 1.0953, 1.1000 The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Quotes approached the priority change level at 1.0867, but on Friday, buyers created an additional barrier for the price in the form of the support level at 1.0876. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but no initiative is now on either side. It is expected that the price will test the resistance level of 1.0902, after which it is necessary to evaluate the reaction of market participants. Buying can be looked for from the support level 1.0876 but with confirmation. Sell trades are best considered from 1.0902, but also subject to sellers’ initiative.Alternative scenario: if the price breaks the support level of 1.0867 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.(Click on image to enlarge)News feed for 2024.03.18: – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – […]

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The UK’s Improving Inflation Outlook In Six Charts
Mar18

The UK’s Improving Inflation Outlook In Six Charts

Last summer, investors thought the UK’s inflation problem was uniquely bad. Fast forward to today and headline inflation will soon be below target and the Bank of England should have enough evidence of disinflation to be able to cut rates in August.  Headline inflation should fall back on WednesdayThis Wednesday we’ll get the latest UK inflation figures, and the Bank of England will want to see confirmation that services inflation is starting to come down, as widely anticipated.That data, which we expect to drop to 6.0% from 6.5% in January, is perhaps the single most important indicator for determining the timing of the first rate cut. Policymakers have signaled they need to see progress on this and private-sector wage growth before acting.  looks too early for any further hints on the timing of that first cut.But for investors, there’s a wider question of where the UK sits relative to its global peers. Last summer, there was a strong conviction in the investment community that the UK’s inflation problem was uniquely bad. At the time US and eurozone inflation had started to see swift disinflation where Britain had not. In investors’ minds, that inflation challenge would require a much more decisive BoE response. At one point, markets were pricing UK rates a full two percentage points higher in two years’ time than in the US.How UK rate expectations two years ahead compare to the USMacrobond, INGThat narrative has now virtually disappeared. The chart above shows that the spread between UK and US […]

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Alphabet Shares Surge On Likely Apple Collaboration For Gemini AI
Mar18

Alphabet Shares Surge On Likely Apple Collaboration For Gemini AI

 shares saw an increase of over 7% Monday morning, buoyed by news that  is considering licensing Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence suite for upcoming .Apple’s stock also experienced a boost, climbing more than 2% following the revelations.Gemini, a comprehensive array of AI tools developed by , spans from chatbots to coding assistants, representing a significant leap forward in AI technology. Alphabet talks with Apple underwayA report from Bloomberg indicates that Apple is actively discussing with Alphabet, Google’s parent company, the integration of the Gemini AI engine into the iPhone ecosystem.These “active negotiations” aim to enable new -powered features in the iPhone software slated for release later this year. This move could mark a pivotal moment in the evolution of iPhone capabilities, introducing a new era of AI-driven functionalities. iOS 18 may have generative AI featuresAnticipation is building for Apple’s next major iPhone update, iOS 18, which is expected to be unveiled at the Worldwide Developers Conference.It is during this event that Apple traditionally discusses its latest software advancements, setting the stage for a potential announcement on its generative AI plans.Apple CEO Tim Cook has already hinted at significant investments in AI, promising groundbreaking developments in generative AI technology in the near future. Apple exploring AI options, including OpenAIFurther enhancing its AI strategy, Apple has reportedly held discussions with , contemplating the integration of its models into Apple’s offerings.However, details regarding the terms, branding, and implementation of any AI agreement with Google or OpenAI remain undecided.The tech community eagerly awaits further announcements, which could redefine the capabilities of consumer technology […]

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The Poor United States Economic Sentiment Screams “Buy Gold”
Mar18

The Poor United States Economic Sentiment Screams “Buy Gold”

Image source:   The manufacturing and consumer confidence weaknesses of the United States are deeply concerning, particularly considering that all those allegedly infallible Keynesian policies are being applied intensely.Considering the insanity of deficit spending driven by entitlement programs, the decline in the headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in March to 76.5 from 76.9 is even worse than expected. Let us remember that this index was at 101 in 2019 and has not recovered from the brief bounce shown by the re-opening effect in March 2021. Consumer confidence is still incredibly low, and a decline in the expectations index fully explains the most recent decline. Persistent inflation, high gas prices, and declining real wages may explain the poor expectations of the average citizen. Furthermore, this poor consumer confidence reading comes after poor control group retail sales last month.Video Length: 00:02:43No, this is not a strong economy. The consumer confidence index, labor participation, and unemployment-to-population ratios, as well as real wage growth, remain massively below the pre-pandemic level, and this is after $6.3 trillion in new public debt that will likely reach $8 trillion by the end of 2024.The manufacturing weakness of the United States is also a problem because this should be a period of high growth, considering the opportunities generated all over the world. Industrial output bounced 0.8% in February, but the January figure was revised to a larger 1.1% slump. If we factor in the decline in the Empire State survey to -20.9 in March, it looks like […]

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Sensex Today Ends 105 Points Higher; IT Stocks Drag
Mar18

Sensex Today Ends 105 Points Higher; IT Stocks Drag

After opening the day marginally lower, Indian share markets reversed the trend as the session progressed and ended the day higher.Equity benchmark indices turned rangebound after a tepid start on Monday.At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood higher by 105 points (up 0.1%).Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty closed higher by 28 points (up 0.1%).Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Tata Motors were among the top gainers today.UPL, Infosys, and TCS on the other hand, were among the top losers today.Further, Tata Group is steering a transformative journey into the electric vehicle (EV) sector. For more details, check Tata EV sector stocks in India.The GIFT Nifty ended at 22,130 up by 34 points.Broader markets ended the day mixed. The BSE Mid Cap ended 0.1% higher and the BSE Small Cap index ended 0.1% lower.Sectoral indices are trading mixed, with stocks in the auto sector, metal sector, and realty sector witnessing selling pressure. Meanwhile, stocks in the IT sector and FMCG sector witnessed selling pressure.Shares of solar industries, Crisil and TCS hit their respective 52-week highs today.The rupee is trading at 82.9 against the US$.Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading marginally lower at Rs 65,47 per 10 grams.Meanwhile, silver prices are trading flat at Rs 75,550 per 1 kg.  DroneAcharya Jumps 5%. Here’s whyIn news from the drone sector, DroneAcharya Aerial Innovations’ share price rose 5% in the early trade on 18 March after the company secured a contract to supply IT hardware for the Indian Army’s drone lab in Jammu and Kashmir.The provision of IT hardware, including CPUs, monitors, keyboards, and […]

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